The global oil market is set for major changes in 2025 and 2026 as non-OPEC+ countries take the lead in petroleum production growth. According to the latest report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), countries like the United States, Canada, Guyana, and Brazil will drive oil supply increases, while OPEC+ production remains restricted due to ongoing supply controls.
How Oil Production Will Change in 2025 and 2026
In 2024, global oil supply increased by 600,000 barrels per day (bpd). However, projections show that:
- In 2025, global supply will grow by 1.9 million bpd.
- In 2026, another 1.6 million bpd will be added.
- Most of this growth will come from non-OPEC+ producers, while OPEC+ countries are expected to increase supply by only 100,000 bpd in 2025 and 600,000 bpd in 2026.
This shift is largely due to production growth in the Americas, especially the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana.
Which Countries Are Increasing Oil Production?
1. United States: The World’s Largest Oil Producer
The U.S. remains the world’s top oil producer, with crude oil output rising due to improved efficiency and reduced drilling rigs.
- 2024: 13.2 million bpd
- 2025: Expected to rise by 600,000 bpd
- 2026: Expected to rise by 500,000 bpd, reaching 13.7 million bpd
Over 50% of U.S. crude oil will come from the Permian Basin, which is offsetting declines in other regions.
2. Canada: Rising Exports with New Pipelines
Canada is also increasing production, helped by the expansion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline, which allows Alberta’s oil to be exported via the West Coast.
- 2024: 6 million bpd
- 2025: Expected to increase by 300,000 bpd
- 2026: Expected to rise by 200,000 bpd
3. Brazil: Offshore Oil Projects Driving Growth
Brazil’s Santos Basin continues to be a major driver of oil growth. In 2025, Brazil will add new Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) units at key oil fields, including:
- Mero field (Alexandre de Gusmão FPSO)
- Búzios field (Almirante Tamandaré and P-78 FPSOs)
These projects are expected to increase Brazil’s oil output by 100,000 bpd in 2025 and 200,000 bpd in 2026.
4. Guyana: Fastest Growing Oil Nation
Guyana’s Stabroek block continues to be a major source of new oil. The Yellowtail project is set to start production in 2025, followed by Uaru and Whiptail in the coming years.
- 2025: Expected to increase by 200,000 bpd
- 2026: Expected to rise by 100,000 bpd
- By 2027, total output could reach 1.3 million bpd.
What’s Happening with OPEC+?
OPEC+ (which includes Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other oil-producing nations) controlled 47% of global oil supply in 2024, producing 35.7 million bpd. However, their market share is expected to drop as non-OPEC+ countries ramp up production.
- OPEC+ will only increase output by 100,000 bpd in 2025.
- Additional 600,000 bpd will be added in 2026.
- The group is gradually phasing out voluntary supply cuts that have been in place since 2023.
Saudi Arabia, the largest oil producer in OPEC, reduced its production to 9 million bpd in 2024, while Russia remained the largest producer in OPEC+ at 9.2 million bpd.
What Does This Mean for Nigeria?
As a major oil-producing country, Nigeria is directly affected by shifts in global oil supply. The rise in non-OPEC+ production means increased competition for oil exports, which could:
- Affect global crude prices, potentially lowering Nigeria’s oil revenue.
- Influence production quotas, as Nigeria remains an OPEC+ member.
- Create opportunities for Nigeria to boost refining capacity and export refined petroleum instead of crude.
The big question remains: Will Nigeria take advantage of this changing market by improving local refining and reducing dependence on imports?
For now, all eyes are on the global oil market to see how these production shifts will shape the future of energy.
