On Monday, June 23, 2025, Iran fired missiles at the Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, a major US military stronghold in the Middle East. The strike was in retaliation for America’s earlier attack on Iran’s nuclear sites. Explosions echoed near Doha and reports of attacks on US assets in Iraq followed swiftly.
Under normal circumstances, oil prices would jump immediately after such military action in the Gulf region. But this time, something unusual happened crude oil prices actually dropped by 6%.
So, what really happened?
The answer lies in investor psychology and how oil traders price risk. Before the Iranian strike, the market had already priced in the fear of a major conflict. When the missiles came but didn’t cause widespread damage or a strong counterattack, traders relaxed.
This kind of move is known in the oil market as “unwinding the risk premium.” It means the fear that previously pushed prices up no longer applied.
Iran’s Strategy: Symbolism, Not Escalation
According to reports, Iran informed Qatar of the strike in advance. It was a calculated move, show strength, but avoid war. This is similar to Iran’s approach in 2020, after the US killed General Qassem Soleimani. Then too, Iran gave prior warning to reduce casualties.
Oil market analysts quickly understood this as a symbolic act rather than a real threat to global oil supply. That’s why prices like Brent Crude and WTI dropped instead of spiking. At the time of writing, Brent traded at $68.15 (down 0.62%) while WTI hovered around $65.64 (down 0.61%).
No Hormuz Blockade For Now
Iran had earlier threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow route where one-fifth of the world’s oil passes. But Monday’s action suggested otherwise. By not touching key oil transport routes, Iran signalled it was not ready to escalate.
That’s a big deal for oil prices. A closure of Hormuz would trigger an immediate global price shock. But with that risk off the table at least for now markets adjusted accordingly.
Qatar’s Delicate Role
Qatar finds itself in a tight spot. It hosts American forces, maintains diplomatic ties with Iran, and is one of the top LNG (liquefied natural gas) exporters globally. This gives it a unique balancing role in the region. Any misstep could affect not just the Gulf, but global energy markets, including Nigeria’s LNG exports.
What This Means for Nigeria
For a country like Nigeria that relies heavily on oil exports, a stable market even if prices are slightly lower is far better than a volatile one. Panic in the oil market usually leads to uncertain pricing and disrupted global flows.
While Nigerian crude like Bonny Light isn’t priced the same way as Brent or WTI, we often see price movement in the same direction. So, the fall in global oil prices means Nigeria may also face slight drops in earnings from crude sales this week.
Bottom Line
Oil prices fell after Iran’s strike because the market saw it as a controlled move, not the start of a full-blown war. But this calm could be short-lived. If tensions rise again or any side makes a mistake, oil prices could swing sharply up or down.
For traders, oil-producing nations like Nigeria, and global policymakers, this event is a reminder: it’s not just about what happens, but how the market thinks it will affect tomorrow.
Crude Prices at a Glance (as of June 27, 2025, 7:00 AM):
- Brent Crude: $68.15 (+0.62%)
- WTI Crude: $65.64 (+0.61%)
- Murban Crude: $68.32 (+0.35%)
- Natural Gas: $3.569 (+1.22%)
Stay with us for more updates on how global events shape Nigeria’s oil economy.
