Depot-level fuel prices across Nigeria surged on Monday as geopolitical jitters rattled the global oil market, prompting panic buying and pricing volatility among marketers. The price hike comes amid mounting fears of retaliation from Iran following U.S. airstrikes on its nuclear facilities, raising alarms about potential supply chain disruptions and energy security.
Bulk marketers at Dangote Refinery, despite securing product at a PFI rate of ₦880 per litre, have increased retail prices to ₦900, capitalizing on the geopolitical uncertainty. The looming threat of conflict in the Middle East has created a fertile ground for speculative pricing, as traders brace for possible shocks to global oil flows.
Depot Prices Spike Nationwide
As of midday June 23, depots in Lagos, Warri, Port Harcourt, and Calabar recorded significant increases in both petrol (PMS) and diesel (AGO) prices. The hikes appeared most pronounced in Warri and Lagos, where top marketers adjusted prices upward in anticipation of further instability.
In Lagos:
- NIPCO sold PMS at ₦945 and AGO at ₦1100 per litre
- Rain Oil listed PMS at ₦920 and AGO at ₦1100
- Pinnacle’s PMS rate rose to ₦910
- WOSBAB and AITEO offered PMS at ₦920
- Sahara, Ardova, IBETO, and IBACHEM all priced AGO at ₦1100
In Warri:
- Matrix listed PMS at ₦930 and AGO at ₦1100
- Taurus hiked PMS to ₦1050
- Rain Oil moved PMS to ₦930 and AGO to ₦1050
- Pinnacle listed PMS as high as ₦1090
Meanwhile, in Calabar, marketers such as HYDE, FYNEFIELD, and ALKANES were selling PMS at ₦940. Port Harcourt saw Sigmund push PMS to ₦940, while the Bulk Strategic listed AGO at ₦1050.
Uncertainty Fuels Market Panic
The sharp upward movement comes at a time when oil benchmarks like Brent and WTI are trending downward—Brent crude fell 0.93% to $76.29 while WTI dipped 1% to $73.10. Despite this, Nigerian depot prices are moving in the opposite direction, fueled not by immediate supply constraints but by anticipatory market reactions.
Traders are increasingly nervous over Iran’s response to U.S. military actions. As Tehran vows to retaliate, concerns are mounting that any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz—responsible for nearly 20% of global oil transit—could trigger a new energy crisis. With the conflict still unfolding, uncertainty has become a fertile ground for speculative price hikes in Nigeria’s downstream market.
Marketers Seize the Moment
According to downstream sources, many depot operators are adjusting prices upward multiple times within the same day, leveraging the geopolitical climate to push for wider margins. The absence of a uniform pricing mechanism, especially since subsidy removal, gives marketers the latitude to peg prices on global sentiment rather than cost realities.
“There’s no real cost justification for this jump yet,” said a fuel distribution manager in Lagos. “But the fear is that once Iran responds, everything will spiral. Everyone’s just getting ahead.”
Implications for Consumers
Retail prices are expected to follow soon as depot rates filter through to filling stations. Independent marketers, particularly in Lagos and Ogun, are reportedly adjusting pump prices upward by ₦20 to ₦30 per litre. This could deepen inflationary pressure in Nigeria, where transport and food costs are already soaring.
A Volatile Week Ahead
With Brent and WTI prices under pressure and depot prices climbing locally, the Nigerian downstream sector stands at a crossroads. If Iran’s next move further destabilizes the Middle East oil corridor, panic pricing may evolve into a full-blown fuel crisis.
For now, Nigerians watch closely as international diplomacy teeters and local marketers recalibrate, not based on cost but fear.
