Nigeria’s petrol consumption is rising again, and the latest NMDPRA report shows just how sharply the curve has turned. According to the regulator, average daily PMS demand surged to 56.74 million litres in October 2025 the highest level recorded since subsidy removal. The spike, clearly captured in the report (Oct 2024–Oct 2025), signals renewed pressure on the downstream sector as mobility increases and generator dependency persists nationwide.
Consumption Before Subsidy, After Subsidy and Now
According to NMDPRA data, Nigeria consumed about 66.9 million litres per day before subsidy removal. This figure, inflated by smuggling and subsidy-linked distortions, represented an artificially high demand profile.
Immediately after subsidy removal in mid-2023, daily consumption slumped to between 47.5 million and 50 million litres as pump prices rose, cross-border leakages reduced, and inflated subsidy claims vanished from the system. The sharp drop exposed the excesses embedded in the subsidy regime showing that real domestic demand was far lower than previously declared.
However, the market has shifted again. By October 2025, PMS consumption had climbed back to 56.7 million litres/day, driven by increased road transport activity, logistics recovery, and persistent reliance on petrol-powered generators due to unstable grid supply. Although still below the pre-subsidy peak, the rebound shows Nigerians have largely adjusted to deregulated pricing, thereby pushing demand upward once again.
Month-by-Month Trend: Jan–Oct 2025 Analysis
According to the NMDPRA report, which outlines a 12-month consumption curve that reflects both seasonal patterns and supply-side realities across the downstream chain. The data reveals a year marked by dips, rebounds, and a sharp end-of-year surge.
| Month (2025) | Daily PMS Consumption (litres/day) |
|---|---|
| Jan 2025 | 51.1m |
| Feb 2025 | 50.4m |
| Mar 2025 | 50.9m |
| Apr 2025 | 55.2m |
| May 2025 | 54.2m |
| Jun 2025 | 48.0m |
| Jul 2025 | 48.2m |
| Aug 2025 | 48.8m |
| Sep 2025 | 43.0m |
| Oct 2025 | 56.7m |
The chart shows a mid-year collapse particularly in September, when consumption fell to a yearly low of 43 million litres/day. This development was driven by weaker logistics movement, tighter consumer purchasing power, and prolonged supply adjustments at depots.
But from late September into October, the market experienced a dramatic rebound. The lift to 56.7 million litres/day represents a 13.7-million-litre jump, underscoring how sensitive petrol demand is to economic activity, grid instability, transport cycles, and harvest-season mobility.
Legacy of the Subsidy “Scam”
The October spike must also be understood through the lens of petrol the deregulation achievement which has become the backbone of downstream pricing.
Before deregulation, artificially low pump prices created fertile ground for fraud from inflated truck-out figures to cross-border smuggling and duplicate subsidy claims. With subsidy removed, consumption fell sharply, confirming that a significant portion of the subsidy-era 66.9m litres/day figure was not genuine domestic use.
While the October surge reflects real demand, it also signals that Nigeria’s heavy reliance on petrol persists. Until refining capacity expands and alternative fuels gain traction, PMS demand will continue to rise and fall in response to FX conditions, and infrastructure gaps.
Nigeria’s daily petrol consumption reaching 56.7 million litres in October 2025 marks a critical turning point in the post-subsidy era. The NMDPRA data shows a market that first declined, then stabilised, and is now accelerating again. Although consumption remains below the bloated subsidy-era peak, the sharp rebound highlights ongoing structural dependence on PMS and the urgent need to strengthen domestic refining, stabilise FX supply, and accelerate the transition to cleaner, cheaper alternatives.
