The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) saw a decline in crude oil production for the second month in a row, with output falling by 50,000 barrels per day (bpd) in January 2025. The group’s total production stood at 26.53 million bpd, according to a new report.
The decline was mainly due to lower crude production in Nigeria and Iran, which offset an increase in oil output from the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Nigeria’s Oil Production Struggles
Nigeria has been struggling to meet its 1.5 million bpd production target set by OPEC. In December 2024, Nigeria produced 1.484 million bpd, but this dropped by 60,000 bpd to 1.42 million bpd in January 2025.
One reason for this decline is the increase in crude oil supply to local refineries, reducing the amount available for export.
Iran Also Records Decline, UAE Sees Growth
Iran’s crude oil production also fell by 60,000 bpd in January. However, the UAE reported the largest increase in production, with output rising by 90,000 bpd after completing field maintenance in December 2024.
OPEC Sticking to Production Cuts
OPEC plans to maintain its oil production cuts until the end of March 2025 due to concerns over global demand and rising output from non-OPEC countries. However, the group has announced that it may increase production from April 2025.
Meanwhile, Libya’s production grew by 40,000 bpd, as it is not part of the OPEC production cuts. Iraq and the UAE are still working to meet their production targets.
Nigeria Still Battling Crude Oil Theft
Oil theft remains a major issue for Nigeria. A recent anti-crude theft operation by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) uncovered over 100 illegal refineries in states like Bayelsa, Abia, and Rivers within two weeks. Authorities also disrupted nearly 200 crude theft incidents.
OPEC Opposes Nigeria’s Plan to Boost Output
Nigeria has announced plans to increase daily oil production to 2.062 million bpd, but this move may put the country in conflict with OPEC. Analysts warn that exceeding the 1.5 million bpd quota could cause an oversupply of crude oil, leading to a drop in global prices.
OPEC is focused on keeping oil prices above $70 per barrel, and higher production levels could make prices unstable.
OPEC’s oil production continues to decline, with Nigeria and Iran facing major drops while the UAE sees improvements. As Nigeria pushes for higher production levels, it risks clashing with OPEC policies. The coming months will be crucial in determining how oil production and global prices will be affected.
