OPEC has slightly reduced how much it expects the world will need oil in 2025, citing growing economic uncertainty caused by trade tensions with the United States.
In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report released Monday, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said global oil demand is now expected to grow by 1.3 million barrels per day next year, down from the 1.4 million barrels per day it previously forecast.
The report also noted a fall in the price of its crude oil basket, which dropped to $66.25 per barrel on Monday from $70.85 the previous Friday.
Uncertainty around trade slows demand
OPEC pointed to increasing trade risks, especially the impact of U.S. tariffs under President Donald Trump, as a key factor behind the change in its forecast. The group said global growth started 2025 on a steady path, but recent trade disputes have created short-term uncertainty for the world economy.
It also said that while oil demand remains strong in some regions, price pressures and trade dynamics could affect growth in the months ahead.
Production cuts continue across OPEC+
The group’s broader alliance, known as OPEC+, which includes Russia and several other oil-producing nations, reduced total output by 37,000 barrels per day in March. This brought collective production down to 41.02 million barrels per day.
The drop was partly due to cuts from Nigeria and Iraq, two countries facing their own challenges with meeting production targets.
OPEC+ ministers met virtually on 3 April to assess the market and agreed that they would gradually return the 2.2 million barrels per day in voluntary production cuts that were first introduced in 2023.
They confirmed that from May 2025, a total of 411,000 barrels per day would be added back into the market a figure that combines the planned May increase and two earlier deferred monthly adjustments.
Cautious recovery planned
OPEC+ made it clear that any iOPEC Appoints Adeyemi-Bero as Board of Governors Chairmanncrease could be paused or reversed if market conditions change. This gives the group flexibility to respond if prices fall further or if demand fails to recover.
The organisation said this step-by-step approach is designed to maintain stability in the oil market, ensuring that supply doesn’t outpace demand too quickly.
The eight countries involved in the voluntary cuts Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman will meet again on 5 May to review market conditions and decide on production levels for June.
The goal is to support a fragile oil market still recovering from price swings, trade conflicts and economic headwinds in several major regions.
