Brent crude prices slipped below the $70 per barrel threshold on Monday as markets braced for more supply from both OPEC+ and Kurdistan, raising fresh concerns for oil-dependent economies like Nigeria.
Kurdistan Oil Flows Add Pressure
Iraq resumed exports from Kurdistan to Turkey’s Mediterranean coast, restoring around 230,000 barrels per day (bpd) after a two-and-a-half-year halt. The additional supply landed just as global demand eases, intensifying fears of oversupply.
OPEC+ Signals Another Output Increase
OPEC+ is preparing to meet on 5 October, with ministers expected to approve another 137,000 bpd production increase in November. This would follow a similar adjustment already scheduled for October, gradually reversing a portion of the 1.65 million bpd cuts introduced earlier in the year.
Although actual production may fall short of the headline figure due to capacity limits among some members, the group’s signalling alone is enough to weigh heavily on prices.
Global Benchmarks Slide
Early Monday trading showed significant weakness across energy benchmarks:
- Brent crude dropped 2.74% to $68.21.
- WTI crude slipped 3.07% to $63.70.
- Murban crude fell 2.76% to $69.28.
- Natural gas defied the trend, ticking up 0.03% to $3.207.
Nigeria’s Fiscal Worries Deepen
For Nigeria, the fall in Brent prices is more than a market headline—it is a fiscal alarm. The 2025 national budget assumes an oil price benchmark of $77 per barrel. With Brent dipping below $70, the government risks a significant shortfall in projected revenues.
Reduced dollar inflows from crude exports could further strain the naira, already under pressure, while complicating fuel import costs and subsidy management. Analysts warn that without a rebound, Nigeria’s fragile economic recovery could face renewed challenges in funding infrastructure, stabilising its currency, and sustaining social spending.
