The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) is considering a sharper increase in crude oil production for November, with discussions focusing on a potential rise of 411,000 barrels per day (bpd), according to sources familiar with the deliberations.
The proposal, which will be discussed at the coalition’s online meeting on October 5, comes as the group seeks to capture more global market share amid strengthening oil prices. OPEC+, which includes Russia alongside core OPEC members, currently supplies nearly half of the world’s oil.
A Shift Away From Cuts
The move signals a further departure from OPEC+’s previous output-cutting strategy. At the height of its coordinated reductions, the alliance had withheld 5.85 million bpd, split across three distinct agreements:
- 2.2 million bpd voluntary cuts by select members.
- 1.65 million bpd reductions by eight producers.
- 2.0 million bpd cuts across the entire group.
By September, the eight producers had already begun unwinding the voluntary 2.2 million bpd element. For October, they initiated the rollback of the 1.65 million bpd cuts, translating into a modest 137,000 bpd increase.
If approved, the November boost of 411,000 bpd would triple October’s increment. One insider suggested the figure could climb as high as 500,000 bpd, though no final decision has been taken.
External Pressures and U.S. Influence
The policy reversal follows months of international pressure, particularly from the United States, where President Donald Trump had called on OPEC+ to ease prices by lifting supply constraints. Since then, the group has restored more than 2.5 million bpd, about 2.4% of global demand, in an effort to stabilize markets and defend its market share.
Upcoming Meetings
Alongside Sunday’s ministerial gathering, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), a technical body that reviews compliance with OPEC+ quotas, will convene online on Wednesday. While the JMMC does not set production policy, its assessments often shape ministerial decision-making.
Earlier reporting by Bloomberg suggested that OPEC+ could accelerate its supply increases by 500,000 bpd spread over the next three months, underscoring the fluidity of internal discussions.
The final decision on November volumes will rest with the full OPEC+ ministerial meeting.
