President Bola Tinubu recently declared in Saint Lucia that his administration has “made the smuggling of our oil unattractive.” The bold assertion, made during a diaspora engagement with Nigerians in the Caribbean, reflects a central claim of Tinubu’s economic reform narrative: that subsidy removal and security overhauls have closed the tap on decades-old cross-border fuel theft.
But how true is this claim?
An in-depth investigation by Petroleumprice.ng, drawing on border market data, military operations, and independent assessments, finds that while smuggling has become riskier and less routine, it is far from eliminated, and in some forms, it may simply have adapted.
What Changed: A Tighter Border and a Pricier Pump
Since assuming office on May 29, 2023, President Tinubu has enacted sweeping reforms. Most notably, his removal of Nigeria’s decades-old petrol subsidy collapsed the arbitrage that fueled smuggling the price of petrol surged from ₦185 to ₦900+ per litre, narrowing the gap with neighbors like Benin and Niger, where Nigerian fuel was resold at double the price.
Further, the administration sustained Buhari-era restrictions such as the 20 km fuel supply ban near borders and ramped up enforcement:
- Operation Whirlwind (launched May 2024) empowered the Nigeria Customs Service to intensify border patrols and interdict fuel smugglers.
- Military campaigns such as Operation Delta Sanity and Thunder targeted crude oil bunkering and illegal refineries in the Niger Delta.
- Over 280,000 liters of petrol were seized in a single Customs sweep in mid-2024, while the Navy recovered 62,000 barrels of stolen crude (~9.8 million litres).
- The NSCDC deployed 10,000 officers and reported dozens of arrests tied to pipeline vandalism and smuggling gangs.
As a result, regional fuel crises in Niger, Benin, and Togo in 2024–25 reflected the drop in illegal supply from Nigeria. Smuggling routes were hit hard, and the price distortion that once encouraged illicit exports appeared to shrink.
Still a Lucrative Business? The Black Market Persists
Yet despite these gains, the underlying economics remain unchanged. Nigerian petrol still retails for ₦800–₦900 per litre, while black-market rates in neighboring countries sit as high as ₦1,600–₦2,000 per litre. This persistent arbitrage continues to incentivize smuggling, even if the operational risk has increased.
Analysts say Nigeria lost billions to theft in 2023–24, and illicit refining remains visible. Army raids in November 2024 alone dismantled 43 illegal refining hubs, seized over 260,000 liters of stolen oil, and arrested 19 suspects. In March 2025, a pipeline blast in Rivers State triggered a state of emergency, underlining the continuing threat of organized bunkering.
Moreover, the government’s heavy-handed enforcement, including border closures and station shutdowns, has hurt legal businesses in border communities. Civil society groups argue that while large-scale flows may have slowed, petrol smuggling has not become “unattractive” to everyone, just more clandestine.
A Work in Progress, Not a Victory Lap
Tinubu’s administration deserves credit for targeting the root causes of smuggling: ending subsidies, enhancing enforcement, and confronting pipeline vandals. The scale and coordination of military and customs action under his government surpasses recent efforts.
However, the data suggests that smuggling has adapted, not disappeared. Enforcement agencies still seize hundreds of thousands of liters monthly, prosecute smugglers, and battle pipeline sabotage. The economic incentive fueled by regional demand and FX instability remains.
As of mid-2025, President Tinubu’s claim is only partially accurate: while the business of smuggling has become more dangerous and less visible, it is not yet fully “unattractive.”
