Global crude prices edged lower on Friday, July 4, as expectations of fresh production hikes from the OPEC+ alliance weighed on market sentiment.
Brent crude dipped to $68.30, losing 0.73%, while WTI crude traded at $66.50, Muban crude also saw a 0.70% drop, settling at $69.61. Natural gas prices followed the trend, dropping 0.65% to $3.387.
Trading was generally thin due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, which saw more than 72 million Americans on the move, limiting market activity.
OPEC+ Moves Meeting Ahead, Eyes Fresh Output
In a strategic shift, OPEC+ has brought forward its July policy meeting from the 6th to Saturday, July 5, with expectations high that the group will announce another 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) supply increase for August.
This potential move is part of OPEC+’s broader plan to gradually roll back voluntary cuts, which were initially adopted to stabilise the market in the face of slowing global demand growth.
Market Skepticism Grows Over Real Supply Impact
Despite these planned increases, traders remain cautious. Market watchers argue that compliance has been inconsistent across several OPEC+ member states. For instance, Kazakhstan continues to pump above its target, citing weak control over international operators like Chevron.
Meanwhile, Iraq a key player in the bloc has taken steps to align with its production quota, easing internal and external pressure.
Geopolitical and Trade Factors Influence Outlook
Beyond OPEC+ dynamics, attention is shifting to July 9, when new tariff deadlines kick in. Several Asian countries are in last-minute negotiations with the U.S., hoping to avoid heavy trade penalties under the Trump administration.
Elsewhere, BlackRock is reportedly in talks with Saudi Aramco to offload its stake in the kingdom’s gas pipeline network, a move that could ease Saudi Arabia’s projected $15.6 billion deficit this year.
Key Global Oil Moves This Week
- India has begun feasibility studies to double its strategic petroleum reserves, focusing on underground salt caverns in Rajasthan.
- ExxonMobil has returned over 2,500km² of offshore acreage in Guyana after failing to explore or develop the blocks.
- Brazil eyes another oil auction this year after raking in $180 million in its last bidding round.
- Venezuela, despite renewed U.S. sanctions, managed to increase oil exports slightly to 844,000 bpd, with 90% of its cargo now heading to China.
- Ecuador declared force majeure on crude exports after major pipelines were damaged by landslides.
- Japan is gearing up to launch a mandatory carbon trading system by 2027, covering firms that emit over 100,000 metric tonnes of CO₂.
U.S. Shale Activity Slows on Uncertain Forecasts
New data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas shows declining optimism in the American oil patch. Business activity in Q2 2025 turned negative, with nearly half of operators indicating they plan to drill fewer wells than previously projected.
Conclusion: Eyes on Real Barrels, Not Announcements
For now, oil traders are ignoring official OPEC+ statements and watching for actual flows and shipping data. Unless production hikes translate into real, trackable exports, price movements will likely remain subdued or volatile.
As it stands, the global oil market is facing a mix of production pledges, geopolitical uncertainty, and demand-side pressure. Nigeria and other crude exporters must stay alert as price signals increasingly respond to what is being loaded and delivered not what is being promised.
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