Global oil crude benchmarks surged on Thursday as traders positioned ahead of a pivotal U.S.-Russia meeting in Alaska. Brent gained 1.32% to $66.52 while WTI crude climbed 1.80% to $63.57 per barrel, Murban crude rose 1.68% to $68.90, extending a short-term recovery from this week’s lows.
Geopolitical Risk Premium Returns
The market’s bullish sentiment stems from expectations that U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin may discuss energy cooperation alongside Arctic oil and gas development and the ongoing Ukraine conflict. Any easing of sanctions could release additional Russian crude into the market, potentially altering near-term supply fundamentals.
Supply-Demand Scenarios at Play
Analysts warn that a partial sanctions relief scenario could expand global crude supply, exerting downward pressure on prices. Conversely, a breakdown in talks or new punitive measures such as secondary tariffs could tighten supply chains, especially into Europe and Asia, reigniting bullish momentum.
Macro Sentiment Shift from Early Week Losses
This rebound follows a midweek slump that pushed Brent below $66 for the first time since early June after bearish forecasts from the IEA and EIA. ING analysts, however, cautioned that the current rally may reflect “premature optimism,” given projections of a late-2025 surplus and OPEC’s spare capacity buffer.
Energy Transition Undercurrent
While the Trump-Putin summit dominates headlines, structural market factors including investment flows, LNG expansion, and shifting refinery demand remain critical to crude’s longer-term price trajectory. Traders are watching closely for both immediate geopolitical signals and medium-term supply adjustments.
