As Donald J. Trump returned to the White House for his second term in 20th of January 2025, many expected turbulence in the global energy markets. Would his policies shake up oil prices? Would natural gas surge due to geopolitical tensions? Despite the uncertainty, the markets have shown remarkable stability, proving once again that fundamental supply-demand forces outweigh political shifts in the long run.
Oil and Gas Prices: Before and After Trump’s Swearing-In
A quick comparison of energy prices before and after Trump took office on 20 January 2025 reveals some interesting trends:
| Energy Source | Price Before Trump (19 Jan 2025) | Price After One Week (27 Jan 2025) |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $81 per barrel | $77.71 per barrel |
| WTI Crude | $78 per barrel | $73.84 per barrel |
| Natural Gas | $2.21 per Nymex | $3.573. per Nymex |
While crude oil prices remained steady, natural gas prices saw an uptick, reflecting seasonal demand and shifting supply dynamics.
Why Haven’t Oil Prices Reacted to Trump’s Return?
Many analysts anticipated price fluctuations following Trump’s re-election, but several factors have kept the market stable:
- OPEC+ Influence: The oil-producing cartel continues to control supply, ensuring stability.
- US Shale Production: Advances in fracking and drilling efficiency have created a more balanced market.
- Geopolitical Factors: While tensions remain high, the market has already adjusted to sanctions on Russia and Iran.
- Renewable Energy Growth: The increasing use of renewables is slowly reducing the global reliance on oil and gas.
Despite Trump’s strong stance on increasing US energy production, global pricing mechanisms remain largely independent of political shifts.
What’s Happening in Nigeria?
In Nigeria, global oil price movements have traditionally dictated local fuel costs. However, in early 2025, a different story unfolded.
- Depot Prices: Petrol depot prices jumped from N907–N912 per litre to N950–N960 per litre in just a week.
- Pump Prices: Consumers now pay between N1,050 and N1,150 per litre at filling stations, depending on location.
- Natural Gas: The increase in global gas prices is expected to impact household and industrial gas tariffs in Nigeria.
Unlike in the US, where natural gas is largely domestically sourced, Nigeria remains heavily dependent on imports, making it vulnerable to global price swings.
What Comes Next?
With Trump back in office, his policies on oil drilling, pipeline projects, and energy exports will continue to shape market expectations. However, barring any major geopolitical upheavals, oil prices are likely to remain stable in the near term.
For Nigeria, the outlook depends on refining capacity, currency stability, and government policy decisions. Until the country becomes less dependent on imported petroleum products, fluctuations in the global market will keep impacting local fuel costs.
While political transitions can create uncertainty, the oil and gas markets have proven their resilience yet again. As we move deeper into 2025, traders, policymakers, and consumers alike will be watching for any major shifts—but for now, the energy sector seems to be holding its ground.
