In a potential relief for Nigerian consumers grappling with soaring fuel costs, reports suggest that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), alongside major downstream players MRS and Ardova, are preparing to reduce petrol pump prices to a speculative ₦910 per litre. This development, if confirmed, would mark a significant shift in Nigeria’s fuel market dynamics, driven largely by the influence of Dangote Refinery, the country’s largest private refinery and a key supplier to these entities.
Background: Dangote Refinery’s Dominance and Supply Chain Impact
Dangote Refinery, owned by Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, has emerged as a pivotal player in Nigeria’s petroleum sector since commencing operations. As a subsidiary-like partner in the downstream supply chain, NNPCL, MRS, and Ardova rely heavily on Dangote Refinery for their petrol supplies. The refinery, with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, has not only aimed to reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel but has also sparked a competitive pricing war that has periodically lowered pump prices across the nation.
Recent news reports and industry analyses indicate that the refinery’s strategic pricing and supply decisions have a ripple effect on its partners, including NNPCL, MRS, and Ardova. These companies, which operate extensive networks of filling stations, have adjusted their prices in lockstep with Dangote’s ex-depot rates, often reflecting the refinery’s efforts to stabilise the market and provide economic relief to Nigerians.
Speculative Price Drop: N910 Per Litre on the Horizon
Industry sources, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of ongoing negotiations, have hinted that NNPCL, MRS, and Ardova are considering a coordinated reduction in pump prices to ₦910 per litre. However, it is crucial to note that these figures remain speculative and have not been officially confirmed by any of the parties involved. The potential price drop follows months of volatility in the fuel market, exacerbated by fluctuations in crude oil supply, currency exchange rates, and the controversial naira for crude policy between the Federal Government, NNPCL, and Dangote Refinery.
The naira for crude arrangement, initiated in October 2024 and set to expire at the end of March 2025, aimed to sell crude oil to local refineries like Dangote in naira rather than dollars, theoretically reducing production costs and, by extension, pump prices. However, recent reports of delays in crude supply and disagreements over payment terms have created uncertainty, prompting fears of price hikes. The speculated N910 per litre price could signal a counter-move to stabilise the market and reassure consumers amid these challenges.
Market Dynamics and Competition
The relationship between Dangote Refinery and its downstream partners, including NNPCL, MRS, and Ardova, is complex but symbiotic. As subsidiaries in all but name, these companies source the majority of their refined petroleum products from Dangote, which has positioned itself as Nigeria’s primary domestic supplier. This dependency has led to a pricing structure where Dangote’s decisions often dictate market trends, as seen in previous instances where the refinery slashed ex-depot prices, forcing NNPCL and others to follow suit.
For instance, in March 2025, Dangote reduced petrol prices from ₦825 per litre to ₦815 per litre at partner stations like MRS and Ardova, prompting NNPCL to lower its retail price to ₦860 per litre in Lagos and ₦880 in Abuja. These moves were widely celebrated as they offered temporary relief to consumers but also highlighted the intense competition and interdependence within the sector. The current speculation of a further drop to ₦910 per litre suggests that Dangote may be pressuring its partners to maintain market share and affordability, especially as global oil prices and local production costs continue to fluctuate.
Economic and Social Implications
If the price reduction materialises, it could have significant implications for Nigeria’s economy and its citizens. Petrol prices directly influence transportation costs, which in turn affect the prices of goods and services nationwide. A drop to ₦910 per litre would be a welcome development for motorists, businesses, and households struggling with the high cost of living, particularly in urban centres like Lagos and Abuja, where fuel demand is highest.
However, industry experts caution that such a reduction might be short-lived if underlying issues, such as the naira’s depreciation and global crude oil price volatility, are not addressed. Recent reports have expressed both optimism and scepticism, with some users questioning whether the price drop is sustainable or merely a tactical move to counter public backlash against rising fuel costs.
Leadership Changes and Policy Shifts
The potential price adjustment also comes against the backdrop of recent leadership changes at NNPCL. In early April 2025, President Bola Tinubu appointed Bayo Ojulari to replace Mele Kyari as head of the state-owned oil company, sparking speculation about a shift in strategy. Some analysts suggest that the new leadership may be more amenable to aligning with Dangote’s pricing policies to avoid further market disruption, especially after the suspension of crude oil deliveries to the refinery in March 2025 due to payment disputes.
Meanwhile, MRS and Ardova, both major players in Nigeria’s downstream sector, have maintained close ties with Dangote Refinery, sourcing their products through special agreements. Their willingness to adjust prices in line with Dangote’s directives underscores the refinery’s dominance and the delicate balance of power within the industry.
Public Reaction and Sentiment
Trending discussions and amay reflect a mix of hope and caution among Nigerians. Many users have praised Dangote’s role in driving down prices, with some calling for more filling stations to sell Dangote branded fuel. Others, however, remain wary, citing past instances where price reductions were followed by sudden hikes. The speculative nature of the ₦910 per litre figure has fueled debates, with some arguing it could be a strategic leak to gauge public reaction.
Challenges Ahead
Despite the optimism, several challenges could derail the planned price drop. The ongoing dispute over the naira for crude deal, coupled with Dangote Refinery’s recent decision to suspend naira-based petrol sales, has introduced new uncertainties. If NNPCL and its partners are forced to source crude in dollars, production costs could rise, negating any benefits of a lower pump price. Additionally, global oil market trends, such as the recent decline in OPEC output due to Nigeria’s reduced deliveries to domestic refineries, could further complicate the situation.
Expert Opinions
Economists and industry watchers have weighed in on the potential price reduction. Bismarck Rewane, Managing Director of Financial Derivatives Company Limited, recently predicted that petrol prices could continue to fall until June 2025 if the competition between Dangote and NNPCL persists. However, he cautioned that without a stable supply chain and currency, any relief might be temporary.
Dr. Paul Alaje, Chief Economist at SBM Professionals, echoed this sentiment, noting that the price war between Dangote and NNPCL has been beneficial for consumers but warned that prices could skyrocket above ₦1,000 per litre if the competition ends. “The current dynamics are good for Nigerians, but they depend on continued production efficiency and government support,” he said.
A Watchful Eye on the Future
As NNPCL, MRS, and Ardova navigate their roles as key distributors of Dangote Refinery products, the speculated drop to ₦910 per litre offers a glimmer of hope for Nigeria’s fuel market. However, until official announcements are made, these figures remain speculative and subject to change. The interplay between Dangote’s market dominance, government policies, and global economic factors will determine whether this price adjustment becomes a reality or another missed opportunity for relief.
For now, Nigerians and industry stakeholders alike are watching closely, hopeful that the collaboration between these major players will lead to sustainable affordability at the pump. As the situation evolves, further updates from NNPCL, MRS, Ardova, and Dangote Refinery will be critical in shaping the future of Nigeria’s petroleum sector.
