An official document obtained by Petroleumprice reveals that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) and oil marketers imported 1.5 million metric tonnes of petrol and 414,018.764 metric tonnes of diesel between October 1 and November 11, 2024.
This development coincides with the naira’s depreciation in the parallel market, where it fell to N1,740/$ on Friday from N1,720/$ the previous day. On the official forex market, the NAFEM, the naira also weakened marginally, closing at N1,652/$ compared to the previous day’s N1,650/$.
On Friday, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced that the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation, rose to 33.88% in October, up from 32.70% in September.
The oil importation report, detailing the movement of motor tanker vessels, showed that 13,500 metric tonnes of jet fuel were also imported during the 42-day period. These products were valued at approximately $1.9 billion, or nearly N3 trillion.
A breakdown of the data revealed about 2 billion litres of petrol, 500 million litres of diesel, and 17 million litres of jet fuel were imported during the period.
Clarification on Importation and Domestic Refining
Speaking at an event in Lagos, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, Mele Kyari, stated, “Today, NNPC does not import any products; we are taking only from domestic refineries.” However, NNPC spokesperson Olufemi Soneye later clarified that this did not imply a complete halt to imports.
“The GCEO’s statement should not be construed to imply that NNPC is obligated to be the sole off-taker of any refinery or that we will no longer import fuel,” Soneye explained. “While NNPC prioritises sourcing products from domestic refineries, this is contingent upon economic viability. If local supply is cost-effective, it will be preferred. The same principle applies to other marketers, who will also evaluate total costs when deciding whether to buy locally or import.”
Refining and Importation Dynamics
While the Dangote Refinery has advocated for local purchases given its capacity, pricing remains a significant challenge. President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, disclosed at a recent meeting that the refinery currently holds more than 500 million litres of fuel in reserves.
Nevertheless, tanker vessels have been delivering refined products to ports in Lagos, Warri, Calabar, and Port Harcourt. In October, the NNPC and its partners imported 994,446.438 metric tonnes of petrol and 285,518.764 metric tonnes of diesel.
From November 1 to 11, an additional 358,083 metric tonnes of petrol, 112,500 metric tonnes of diesel, and 13,500 metric tonnes of aviation fuel were discharged at Nigerian ports.
NNPC also received significant deliveries, including 60,590.187 metric tonnes of petrol via the Navig8 Honor at Pinnacle Terminal on October 10 and 38,083 metric tonnes of petrol via the CL Agatha Christie on October 16. Similarly, AA Rano imported 18,860 metric tonnes of petrol and 20,000 metric tonnes of diesel.
Inflation Surge and Economic Pressures
The NBS noted that October’s inflation increase was driven by higher food and energy prices, despite the harvest season, when prices typically decline.
Year-on-year, inflation rose by 6.55% to 33.88% in October, compared to 27.33% in October 2023. Month-on-month inflation also climbed to 2.64% in October from 2.52% in September. Food inflation surged to 39.16% year-on-year, with notable price increases in staples like guinea corn, maize, yam, and oils.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural and energy prices, rose to 28.37% year-on-year in October, attributed to higher transportation costs, rent, and services.
Analysts’ Insights and Projections
Cordros Research analysts observed that October’s good inflation exceeded the five-year average for the month, reflecting persistent5 structural challenges in agriculture, such as flooding, conflicts in the north, and rising input costs.
“This trend reflects persistent structural challenges undermining the agricultural sector’s productivity. Key factors include widespread flooding disruption farming activities, ongoing conflict in the Northern region limiting agricultural operations, and rising input costs constraining harvest yields below historical averages, all of which have kept agricultural food prices elevated,” they stated.
Looking ahead, Cordros predicts that naira volatility, high energy costs, and festive-driven consumer demand will continue to drive inflation. “We expect food inflation to print 3.04% month-on-month in November, leading to a further year-on-year increase of 40.83%. Core inflation is projected to rise by 2.16% month-on-month, bringing the headline inflation to 34.60% year-on-year,” they added.
