Nigeria’s downstream petroleum regulator, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), will issue new petrol and diesel import permits before the end of February after weeks of regulatory delays and tightening domestic supply.
Industry sources say the authority could release the permits as early as mid-February or, at the latest, by early March to address emerging shortfalls in local refining output.
Leadership changes at the regulator partly caused the delay in issuing the permits. The exit of Farouk Ahmed as head of the NMDPRA on 17 December reportedly slowed internal decision-making, creating a knock-on effect across the fuel import approval process.
Permit delays amid refining constraints
So far in 2026, the regulator has not issued any fuel import permits, in line with its policy of limiting imports strictly to cover gaps in domestic supply. However, recent developments at Nigeria’s largest refinery have altered market fundamentals.
Crude receipts at the Dangote Refinery dropped to a 16-month low in January, signalling weaker crude processing activity. Seaborne crude deliveries fell to about 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) last month, down from 350,000 bpd in December, suggesting lower crude distillation unit (CDU) run rates.
Market sources say the refinery is currently undergoing maintenance on its fuel-yielding residual fluid catalytic cracking (RFCC) unit and the CDU, a situation that may constrain output and strengthen the case for additional imports to stabilise supply.
Market impact and price dynamics
Although petrol (PMS) demand reportedly softened during the Christmas and early January period due to office closures and reduced economic activity, traders say fresh import permits would open the door for more competitive foreign fuel cargoes.
Recent trading sessions indicate that imported fuel barrels are pricing more attractively than domestic supply. Asking prices for fuel jumped by 14 per cent to ₦799 per litre on 27 January, after earlier falling to ₦699 per litre on 12 December, reflecting renewed market tightness.
Under existing practice, the NMDPRA issues refined product import permits on a quarterly basis, with each approval typically valid for three months. However, sources note that issuing permits almost halfway into the first quarter of 2026 raises questions about how the quarterly framework will be applied going forward.
As Nigeria continues to balance domestic refining ambitions with supply realities, market participants say timely regulatory decisions will remain critical to avoiding fuel shortages and excessive price volatility in the downstream market.
