Nigeria’s petrol supply strengthened sharply in December 2025, with daily availability rising to 74.2 million litres, the highest level recorded in over a year, as increased domestic refining output combined with sustained imports to stabilise the downstream market.
Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) shows that the improvement was driven largely by a significant jump in locally refined petrol, even as national consumption climbed to its highest point of the year.
Petrol Supply Expands Despite Rising Demand
Total domestic petrol supply increased from 71.5 million litres per day (ML/D) in November to 74.2 ML/D in December, reflecting stronger inflows into coastal depots and higher evacuation from domestic refineries.
At the same time, petrol consumption surged by more than 20% month-on-month, rising from 52.9 ML/D in November to 63.7 ML/D in December. The sharp increase points to heightened economic activity, seasonal travel, and post-subsidy demand normalisation during the year-end period.
Despite the spike in demand, Nigeria’s petrol market avoided stress, supported by improved inventory cover and better supply coordination.
Stock Cover Nearly Doubles to 29 Days
One of the clearest indicators of market stability was the sharp rise in petrol stock sufficiency. NMDPRA data shows that days of PMS cover jumped from 16.65 days in November to 29.20 days in December, representing a 77% increase within one month.
This level of coverage, close to a full month of national supply, aligns with international benchmarks for healthy fuel availability and marks a sharp recovery from supply pressure seen earlier in 2025, particularly in October when stock cover fell to just over 11 days.
The regulator attributed the rebound to stronger refinery performance, improved import scheduling, and more effective inland distribution by oil marketing companies.
Domestic Refining Becomes a Key Supply Anchor
A major shift in December was the growing role of domestic refining in meeting petrol demand. Local PMS supply rose from 19.47 ML/D in November to 32.01 ML/D in December, a 64% month-on-month increase and the highest domestic contribution recorded in the period under review.
This jump confirms that local refining is no longer marginal in Nigeria’s petrol supply chain. While imports remained significant, domestic output accounted for nearly half of actual daily consumption in December, easing pressure on foreign exchange and reducing near-term supply risks.
Dangote Refinery Drives PMS Growth
The increase in domestic petrol supply came almost entirely from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which remained Nigeria’s only material refining backbone during the month.
In December, the refinery operated at an average capacity utilisation of 62.94%, peaking at about 77%, and delivered an average PMS output of 32.012 ML/D. While this fell short of the refinery’s planned 50 ML/D domestic supply target, it still represented a decisive improvement over November levels.
The data suggests that operational stability at Dangote, rather than state-owned refineries or modular plants, was the primary driver of Nigeria’s improved petrol availability at year-end.
Imports Still Bridge the Supply Gap
Despite the progress in local refining, imports continued to play a stabilising role. NMDPRA figures show that petrol imports averaged 42.2 ML/D in December, down from 52.1 ML/D in November as domestic output increased.
The combined effect of higher refinery output and sustained imports lifted total PMS supply to its peak, reinforcing Nigeria’s transition toward a hybrid supply model rather than complete import dependence.
Demand Outpaces Benchmarks, Signals Structural Shift
December’s petrol consumption of 63.7 ML/D significantly exceeded Nigeria’s long-standing benchmark of 50 ML/D, underscoring a structural rise in fuel demand since subsidy removal.
The divergence suggests that official consumption benchmarks may now understate actual market realities, particularly during peak economic and travel periods. Analysts say this has implications for supply planning, stock policy, and import scheduling in 2026.
Stronger Supply Masks Ongoing Vulnerabilities
While December’s figures reflect a well-managed market, the volatility seen earlier in 2025 highlights lingering vulnerabilities. Petrol supply fell as low as 39.7 ML/D in September, underscoring the system’s sensitivity to logistics disruptions and import timing.
The December rebound demonstrates what is possible with coordinated refinery output, import flows, and inventory management—but also shows that sustained stability will depend on higher and more consistent domestic refining utilisation.
Outlook
By the close of 2025, Nigeria had achieved one of its strongest petrol supply positions in recent years, backed by rising local refining and improved stock cover. However, imports remain essential, and domestic output still falls short of total demand.
As additional refinery capacity, including new trains at modular facilities, comes on stream in 2026, regulators expect further gains. For now, December’s data confirms that Nigeria’s petrol market has entered a more resilient—but still transitional—phase.
