Nigeria’s crude oil production, including condensate, declined by 8.3 per cent year on year to 1.544 million barrels per day (bpd) in December 2025, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
The regulator said output fell from 1.684 million bpd recorded in December 2024. While the report did not specify the causes, industry indicators point to weak investment levels and persistent production constraints.
Output Slips Month on Month
On a month-on-month basis, production also declined. NUPRC data show output eased to 1.544 million bpd in December from 1.599 million bpd in November 2025.
The figures confirm that Nigeria failed to meet its 1.5 million bpd OPEC quota during the month. Of the total output, 122,385 bpd came from condensate, which the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries does not count toward quota compliance.
This shortfall also meant Nigeria missed the 2025 budget production target of 2.06 million bpd. The federal budget assumed an oil price of $75 per barrel and an exchange rate of about ₦1,500 per dollar.
NUPRC Production Breakdown
In its December report, the NUPRC stated that combined crude and condensate production ranged from 1.52 million barrels per day (bpd) at its lowest to 1.82 million bpd at its peak during the month.
Average daily production stood at 1,544,345 bpd, made up of 1,421,960 bpd of crude oil and 122,385 bpd of condensate. The commission noted that average crude output represented 95 per cent of Nigeria’s OPEC quota.
OPEC Confirms Quota Miss
OPEC’s January 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) also confirmed the decline.
Based on direct communication, OPEC said Nigeria’s crude oil production, excluding condensate, fell slightly to 1.422 million bpd in December 2025, down from 1.436 million bpd in November, a 0.9 per cent decline.
On a year-on-year basis, OPEC data show that output dropped from 1.485 million barrels per day (bpd) to 1.422 million bpd, reinforcing that Nigeria remained below its assigned quota.
Structural Issues Persist
Commenting on the trend, Wumi Iledare, Professor Emeritus of Petroleum Economics and Executive Director of the Emmanuel Egbogah Foundation, said the decline reflects long-standing structural challenges.
“The reasons are familiar,” Iledare said. “Insecurity, a mature basin with no major new discoveries, and the failure to offer fresh hydrocarbon blocks for bidding continue to weigh on output.”
He added that governance gaps and policy uncertainty have weakened investor confidence.
“The selective implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act must stop,” he said. “Nigeria needs a clearly designated leader with the institutional authority to drive the sector. Too many proxy drivers will not work. I cannot recall the last time Nigeria met its OPEC quota.”
