Nigeria’s crude oil production fell to 1.39 million barrels per day (mbpd) in September 2025, marking the second consecutive month of decline and the lowest output in seven months, according to the latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) released by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
The new figure represents a drop from 1.434mbpd recorded in August, signaling a reversal of the brief recovery recorded earlier in June and July when Nigeria’s output approached its OPEC quota. The decline also places production below the country’s allocation of about 1.5mbpd for the month.
OPEC said the data was obtained through direct communication with Nigerian authorities, reaffirming figures earlier published by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
The NUPRC report, released last week, estimated total crude and condensate production at 1.581mbpd in September, comprising 1.39mbpd of crude and 191,373 barrels per day of condensate.
Industrial Action and Operational Disruptions
The commission attributed the output drop mainly to the three-day industrial strike by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN), which disrupted operations across multiple terminals and export facilities.
In a letter dated September 29, 2025, the Group Chief Executive Officer of Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), Bayo Ojulari, confirmed that the strike action led to “significant production deferments and projected revenue losses” arising from missed crude liftings and reduced gas sales.
Beyond the labour dispute, the MOMR highlighted that crude theft, pipeline vandalism, and technical challenges at some oil terminals continued to undermine Nigeria’s production stability. The setbacks have persisted despite ongoing efforts by the government and private operators to enhance security and monitoring systems in the Niger Delta region.
Fiscal Implications and Policy Response
Analysts warn that the sustained production shortfall could weaken Nigeria’s 2025 fiscal projections, given that crude oil remains the country’s largest foreign exchange earner, contributing over 80 percent of export revenues.
With oil prices now hovering below $65 per barrel, the dip in output could further squeeze government revenue and complicate budget financing efforts, particularly at a time of rising inflation and currency volatility.
Energy analysts also point to structural inefficiencies and underinvestment as major constraints on output recovery. The NNPCL, however, has reiterated its plan to raise production to at least 1.8mbpd by the end of 2025, citing tighter security operations in the Niger Delta and renewed investment in upstream assets.
Persistent Vulnerabilities
Despite incremental gains earlier in the year, Nigeria’s oil sector remains vulnerable to operational shocks. Experts say consistent downtime across terminals, aging infrastructure, and the resurgence of crude theft networks continue to hinder output recovery and investor confidence.
“Until the underlying issues of infrastructure integrity and community security are sustainably addressed, production volatility will persist,” said an upstream industry consultant who spoke on condition of anonymity.
The latest OPEC data underscores Nigeria’s struggle to sustain output growth, raising concerns about its ability to meet fiscal targets and maintain a stable position within the global oil supply chain.
