Nigeria generated an estimated N55.5 trillion from crude oil sales in 2025, based on an analysis of official production data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) and crude price benchmarks published by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The figure represents an increase from the N50.88 trillion recorded in 2024, supported mainly by firmer crude prices despite persistent production challenges throughout the year.
According to NUPRC data, Nigeria produced 530.41 million barrels of crude oil between January and December 2025. Output fluctuated during the year due to operational disruptions, outages, and gradual recoveries in some producing fields.
To arrive at the revenue estimate, total crude production was multiplied by the average Bonny Light price of $72.08 per barrel in 2025 and converted at an exchange rate of N1,450 to the dollar.
Production Swings Shape Annual Output
Crude oil production started the year on a strong note, with 47.70 million barrels in January, before dropping sharply to 41.02 million barrels in February. Output recovered modestly in March at 43.42 million barrels and rose further to 44.57 million barrels in April.
Production remained relatively steady in the second quarter, inching up to 45.04 million barrels in May and 45.16 million barrels in June.
In the third quarter, output peaked at 46.73 million barrels in July but declined again to 44.47 million barrels in August and fell further to 41.69 million barrels in September, one of the lowest monthly levels recorded in 2025.
The final quarter showed some recovery. Production rose to 43.44 million barrels in October, edged slightly lower to 43.08 million barrels in November, and closed the year at 44.08 million barrels in December, according to the NUPRC.
Crude Prices Offset Output Shortfalls
Although Nigeria struggled to meet its OPEC production quota for much of the year, crude prices helped support overall revenue.
CBN data show that Bonny Light crude traded at elevated levels early in 2025 before easing as global oil market conditions softened.
Prices averaged $80.76 per barrel in January, before declining to $77.08 in February and $74.44 in March. The downtrend continued in April, when prices fell to $69.07, and bottomed out at $65.90 in May.
However, prices rebounded in June to $73.50 and remained largely stable through the third quarter, averaging $73.18 in July, $70.55 in August, and $70.20 in September. Prices declined again in October to $66.15, the latest month covered by CBN data.
Using the simple average of the 10 available monthly prices, Bonny Light crude averaged $72.08 per barrel over the period under review.
Applying this price to the total production of 530.41 million barrels, Nigeria’s estimated gross crude oil revenue stood at $38.23 billion, equivalent to about N55.5 trillion.
Industry analysts stressed that the figure reflects gross earnings, not actual government receipts. It excludes production costs, oil theft losses, joint venture cash calls, cost recovery under production-sharing contracts, domestic crude supply obligations, and deferred liftings.
Crude-for-Loan Repayments Cloud Revenue Picture
Part of Nigeria’s crude output continued to service outstanding oil-backed loans.
In 2024, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) repaid part of its $3 billion forward-sale loan from Afreximbank with crude oil valued at N991 billion, according to its audited financial statements.
The repayment formed part of Project Gazelle, a forward crude supply agreement signed in 2023. Under the deal, NNPC committed to supply 90,000 barrels per day from production-sharing contract assets to support the facility.
By December 2024, total drawdowns had reached N4.9 trillion out of an available N5.1 trillion, leaving an outstanding balance of N3.8 trillion. It remains unclear how much crude oil was allocated to servicing this balance in 2025.
OPEC Quota Misses Persist
Nigeria’s production challenges continued into the final months of the year.
NUPRC data show that crude output dipped by 14,000 barrels per day in December 2025, falling from 1.436 million barrels per day (mbpd) in November to 1.422 mbpd. This represented about 95 per cent of Nigeria’s OPEC quota.
Overall, Nigeria fell below its OPEC target in nine months of 2025, meeting or slightly exceeding the quota only in January, June, and July.
Daily output peaked at 1.54 mbpd in January, before declining to 1.47 mbpd in February and 1.40 mbpd in March, one of the widest shortfalls of the year. Production recovered modestly in April and May, exceeded the quota briefly in June and July, then weakened again in the third quarter.
Budget Targets Missed, Outlook Turns Conservative
Nigeria’s 2025 budget assumed daily oil production of 2.1 million barrels, equivalent to 766.5 million barrels for the year. However, actual output reached only 599.64 million barrels, comprising 530.41 million barrels of crude and 69.23 million barrels of condensate.
This left a shortfall of 166.86 million barrels against the annual target.
As a result, oil benchmarks for 2026 were set more conservatively. The new assumptions include daily production of 1.84 million barrels, a benchmark price of $64.85 per barrel, and an exchange rate of N1,400 to the dollar.
Experts Cite Structural Constraints
Economists and energy experts attributed Nigeria’s production struggles to structural and policy challenges.
Professor Segun Ajibola said crude output depends on multiple factors, including technical cooperation with partners, global oil market conditions, and domestic security issues.
He highlighted persistent problems such as pipeline vandalism, oil theft, insecurity, and governance challenges at NNPC as key constraints.
Similarly, Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, identified insecurity and policy uncertainty as the two biggest obstacles to upstream investment.
While he acknowledged progress in pipeline protection and investor engagement, Yusuf said Nigeria still lags behind competing oil producers offering more attractive fiscal terms.
Professor Dayo Ayoade added that improving governance, reducing production costs, and enforcing sector regulations remain critical to boosting investor confidence and achieving future production targets.
Despite the N55.5 trillion earned in 2025, experts agreed that Nigeria must address long-standing operational and policy challenges to translate crude oil output into sustainable fiscal stability.
