Nigeria’s crude oil production has once again fallen below its OPEC quota, raising concerns about the nation’s energy output and economic projections.
According to data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), the country’s crude oil production declined to approximately 1.47 million barrels per day (mbpd) in February, down from 1.54 mbpd recorded in January. This drop means Nigeria fell short of its 1.5 mbpd allocation set by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), losing an average of 70,000 barrels per day—translating to a staggering monthly shortfall of 2.1 million barrels.
Fluctuating Output Raises Concerns
Nigeria had started 2025 on a strong note, exceeding its OPEC quota in January with a production of 1.54 mbpd, drawing praise from industry stakeholders. However, the latest figures from the NUPRC indicate a setback, as total oil production—including crude and condensates—dropped from 1.78 mbpd in January to 1.67 mbpd in February.
The commission’s report detailed: “Lowest and peak production in February were 1.60 million barrels per day (bopd) and 1.76 million bopd, respectively. The daily average production in February was 1,671,953 bopd, comprising crude oil (1,465,006 bopd) and condensates (206,948 bopd). The average crude oil production was 98 percent of OPEC’s quota (1.5 mbpd).”
Nigeria has struggled to meet its OPEC quota for several years, missing production targets throughout 2022, 2023, and 2024. However, hopes had been high at the beginning of 2025 when production surged from 1.4 mbpd in December 2024 to 1.54 mbpd in January.
Challenges and Ambitious Production Targets
Persistent issues such as crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and inadequate investment in exploration continue to hinder Nigeria’s production capacity. Despite these setbacks, Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, remains optimistic about reaching 3 mbpd this year. He emphasized that the country would pursue aggressive drilling strategies similar to the “Drill, baby drill” approach once championed by former U.S. President Donald Trump.
Lokpobiri clarified that the ambitious 3 mbpd target includes both crude oil and condensates and assured stakeholders that Nigeria would work closely with OPEC to ensure compliance while ramping up production.
Meanwhile, Ademola Adeyemi-Bero, Chairman of OPEC’s Board of Governors, stressed that Nigeria’s vast hydrocarbon reserves should enable it to produce up to 4 mbpd. “Nigeria has no business producing below two million barrels per day. With our resource base, we should be producing 2.5, 3, or even 4 million barrels daily. We have to demonstrate our capacity to justify an increased OPEC quota,” he stated.
Economic Implications of Production Decline
The unexpected drop in crude oil production raises concerns about Nigeria’s ability to meet its 2025 budget projections, which are based on a production target of 2.06 mbpd. If output continues to decline, the country risks falling short of its anticipated oil revenue, which is critical to funding government operations and infrastructure projects.
Additionally, the production slump could impact local refineries, leading to potential feedstock shortages. As Nigeria pushes for self-sufficiency in refined petroleum products, ensuring a steady crude supply for domestic refineries will be crucial.
As stakeholders continue to monitor Nigeria’s production trajectory, the government’s ability to curb crude oil theft, improve security along pipeline corridors, and attract investment in upstream operations will determine whether the country can meet its ambitious oil production targets for the year.
