Official data from the National Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has contradicted earlier reports suggesting a rise in Nigeria’s crude oil output to 1.8 million barrels per day (mbpd) in October 2024. Instead, the NUPRC reports that total crude oil production, including condensates, dropped marginally by 0.40%, averaging 1.538 mbpd in October, compared to 1.544 mbpd in September.
However, excluding condensates, crude oil production recorded a slight increase of 9,029 barrels per day, rising from 1.32 mbpd in September to 1.33 mbpd in October.
The oil sector in Nigeria continues to face severe challenges, including persistent crude oil theft in the Niger Delta, ageing oil fields with declining reservoir performance, poor infrastructure maintenance leading to frequent shutdowns, and a lack of upstream investments affecting capacity expansion and efficiency.
An analysis of the October 2024 production figures highlighted mixed performances across Nigeria’s oil terminals:
Forcados Terminal saw a substantial decline of 30.15%, with output dropping to 5.09 million barrels, down from 7.29 million barrels in September.
Escravos Terminal recorded a 5.19% increase, producing 4.34 million barrels, up from 4.13 million barrels in September.
Qua Iboe Terminal posted a remarkable 45.06% surge, rising to 4.14 million barrels compared to 2.85 million barrels in September.
Bonny Terminal showed a 2.62% growth, with production reaching 6.26 million barrels from 6.10 million barrels in September.
Brass Terminal achieved a modest increase of 0.66%, with production climbing to 1.05 million barrels.
The continued low production levels have contributed to significant revenue losses and a sharp decline in foreign exchange (FX) inflows, as crude oil remains the country’s primary FX source. This shortfall has also hindered Nigeria’s ability to meet its OPEC production quota and the demands of local refineries.
So far in 2024, crude oil production has averaged around 1.52 mbpd, far below the government’s target of 1.78 mbpd set in the 2024 budget. Analysts are increasingly sceptical about the country’s ability to meet the projected annual average output of 1.56 mbpd.
Nigeria’s oil sector challenges remain a pressing concern, requiring urgent interventions to address theft, infrastructure decay, and dwindling investments in the upstream industry.
