Nigeria exported over 160 million barrels of crude oil in the first quarter of 2025, while local refineries battled with supply shortages. Despite the government’s push for self-sufficiency in fuel production, the latest data shows that 82% of crude output went to foreign buyers, leaving only 18% for domestic use.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) disclosed that average daily crude lifting stood at 1.57 million barrels, with 1.29 million bpd exported and just 280,000 bpd allocated to Nigerian refineries.
Industry experts warn that the country’s growing refining infrastructure remains underutilized due to policy inconsistencies and weak enforcement of domestic supply obligations.
Dangote Refinery Turns to U.S. Amid Local Crude Deficit
The Dangote Refinery, Africa’s largest, has started importing large volumes of U.S. crude to keep operations running. According to Aliko Dangote, the refinery relies increasingly on foreign supply due to unreliable local allocations.
From April to July 2025, Dangote Refinery is expected to import 17.65 million barrels of crude, with 3.65 million barrels already received. Data from Bloomberg shows that WTI Midland crude from the U.S. now makes up one-third of the refinery’s feedstock.
During a visit from the One-Stop Shop Technical Committee, Dangote said domestic producers have consistently failed to meet agreed supply targets, forcing the refinery to look abroad.
Refinery Operators Fault Government for Supply Failures
The Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) has criticized the government for failing to enforce the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO) and the Domestic Crude Refining Requirement (DCRR) under the Petroleum Industry Act 2021.
CORAN’s spokesperson, Eche Idoko, accused upstream producers of ignoring local refiners in favour of dollar-paying international clients. He said the current “willing buyer, willing seller” system disadvantages domestic players who operate in a volatile naira environment and lack forex access.
“The government talks about refining self-sufficiency but allows market forces to sideline local refineries,” Idoko stated.
He added that although the DCSO earmarked 385,000 bpd for domestic supply, actual deliveries have fallen short. In February and March 2025, the Dangote refinery received only 950,000 barrels across six cargoes—just 16% of the monthly target.
NUPRC Promises Improvement Despite Export Dominance
The NUPRC acknowledged the imbalance but said the 18% allocation to local refineries reflects efforts to strengthen domestic capacity gradually. It emphasized the importance of maintaining export earnings while expanding domestic fuel production.
“Crude supply to refineries may be lower, but it plays a key role in ensuring local energy availability,” the commission stated.
In the same period, Nigeria produced an average of 1.68 million barrels per day of crude and condensate. Crude oil accounted for 87% of the total, with condensate making up 13%, consistent with historic production patterns.
The commission added that the current supply structure reflects a well-managed but export-heavy value chain, urging further reforms to achieve balance.
