Nigeria’s crude oil imports from the United States surged by 153 per cent in the first nine months of 2025, signalling a sharp shift in the country’s crude sourcing pattern as domestic refineries, led by Dangote, ramp up operations.
Analysis of US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data shows that Nigeria imported 39.99 million barrels of US crude between February and September 2025, up from 15.79 million barrels over the same period in 2024.
Monthly Imports Show Steady Growth
There were no recorded US crude imports into Nigeria in January of either year. However, shipments rose steadily from February 2025 onward.
Imports stood at 3.11 million barrels in February, slightly below the 3.61 million barrels recorded a year earlier. In March, volumes climbed to 5.25 million barrels, compared with 3.42 million barrels in March 2024.
By April, Nigeria imported 2.04 million barrels, up from 1.54 million barrels in the corresponding month of 2024. The upward trend continued in May, with imports rising to 3.79 million barrels, nearly double the 2.08 million barrels recorded the previous year.
A sharp acceleration followed in June 2025, when imports jumped to 9.16 million barrels, more than eight times the 1.04 million barrels recorded in June 2024. In July, shipments reached 4.17 million barrels, marginally above 4.10 million barrels in July 2024.
For both August and September 2025, imports held steady at 6.24 million barrels per month. No shipments were recorded for those months in 2024, underscoring the scale of the 2025 shift.
Altogether, the 39.99 million barrels imported this year point to growing reliance on US crude grades, particularly light sweet barrels suited to complex refining systems.
Dangote Refinery Drives Import Surge
The surge reflects the steady ramp-up of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which has increasingly favoured US light sweet crude for operational efficiency.
However, the trend highlights a paradox. Nigeria remains Africa’s largest oil producer and an OPEC member, yet it continues to import crude to feed domestic refineries due to persistent challenges in local crude allocation.
Despite expectations that Dangote would rely primarily on Nigerian crude, data indicate continued dependence on foreign supply to optimise throughput.
Local Crude Supply Falls Short
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) disclosed earlier that 67,657,559 barrels of crude oil were supplied to local refiners between January and August 2025.
According to NUPRC, the allocations made under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) and the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation covered modular and state-owned refineries, including Waltersmith, Aradel Energy, and facilities operated by NNPC Limited.
Yet, refiners say the volumes remain insufficient. Indigenous processors requested 123,480,500 barrels for the first half of 2025 but received 55,822,941 barrels less, leaving them short by approximately 45 percent.
Earlier projections by NUPRC indicated that refineries such as Port Harcourt, Warri, Dangote, and others would require 770,500 barrels per day, equivalent to 23.8 million barrels monthly, or 123.4 million barrels for the first half of the year. Actual deliveries have not matched those estimates.
Meanwhile, Nigeria’s crude and condensate production rose to 1.63 million barrels per day in August, with a large share still exported.
US Crude Overtakes Nigerian Supply
Data from commodities analytics firm Kpler show that in July 2025, the Dangote refinery imported a record 590,000 barrels per day, the highest monthly intake since operations began.
US crude accounted for 370,000 bpd, or 60 percent, while Nigerian grades supplied 220,000 bpd, or 40 percent, mainly Bonny Light, Amenam, and Escravos.
Kpler noted that while WTI has featured prominently in Dangote’s import slate since March, July marked the first time US crude overtook Nigerian supply, driven by domestic sourcing constraints and pricing dynamics.
Refinery owners have repeatedly blamed limited access to local crude, arguing that producers prefer exporting barrels for dollar payments, leaving domestic refiners exposed to exchange-rate pressures.
As US shipments continue to rise, the data suggest that Nigeria’s refining revival remains tightly linked to foreign crude supply—at least in the near term.
