Nigeria significantly increased its crude oil imports from the United States in the first half of 2025, a development tied to the ramp-up of operations at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. The trend signals a notable shift in the country’s sourcing pattern for refinery feedstock.
Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicate that between February and June 2025, Nigeria imported 23.35 million barrels of American crude, nearly double the 11.69 million barrels received in the same period of 2024. This represents a 99.75% year-on-year rise.
Monthly Import Trends
The figures show sharp month-to-month fluctuations as well as year-on-year shifts:
- January 2025: No U.S. crude imports.
- February 2025: 3.11m barrels, down 13.8% from 3.61m in Feb. 2024.
- March 2025: 5.25m barrels, up 53.5% from 3.42m in Mar. 2024.
- April 2025: 2.04m barrels, up 32.2% from 1.54m in Apr. 2024.
- May 2025: 3.79m barrels, up 82.4% from 2.08m in May 2024.
- June 2025: 9.16m barrels, a jump of 782.6% from 1.04m in Jun. 2024.
On a sequential basis, imports rose by 68.7% in March compared with February, then dropped by 61.2% in April. May volumes rebounded by 86%, while June more than doubled, climbing 141.7% from the prior month.
June’s intake alone accounted for nearly two-fifths of total imports in the five-month window.
Preference for U.S. Grades
The numbers suggest that the Dangote Refinery is steadily ramping up operations with a preference for U.S. light sweet crude, which matches the facility’s complex refining units.
Yet, this dependence highlights a contradiction: despite being a top African producer and OPEC member, Nigeria is exporting much of its own crude while bringing in foreign barrels to sustain domestic refining.
The $20 billion refinery was initially projected to run mainly on Nigerian crude, but current trade flows reveal U.S. oil is critical for its operations.
Domestic Production Growth
Nigeria’s increasing reliance on imports occurred even as crude output rose. According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), the country produced 266.9 million barrels between January and June 2025, a 12.7% rise from 236.7 million barrels in the same period last year.
Monthly breakdown:
- Jan 2025: 47.7m barrels (44.2m in Jan. 2024).
- Feb 2025: 41m barrels (38.3m in Feb. 2024).
- Mar 2025: 43.4m barrels (38.2m in Mar. 2024).
- Apr 2025: 44.6m barrels (38.7m in Apr. 2024).
- May 2025: 45m barrels (39.1m in May 2024).
- Jun 2025: 45.2m barrels (38.1m in Jun. 2024).
This meant an additional 30.2 million barrels were produced year-on-year. With condensates factored in, production climbed to 303.2 million barrels, compared with 275 million barrels in 2024.
Shortfall in Domestic Crude Allocation
Despite higher national output, refineries within Nigeria received less crude than they requested. NUPRC data show 67.65 million barrels were supplied between January and August 2025, against refiners’ demand of 123.48 million barrels for the first half of the year.
This equates to 45% below demand. Allocations were made under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021 and the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO), with volumes going to Waltersmith, Aradel Energy, and NNPC facilities, among others.
Dangote Refinery’s Import Mix
Independent shipping and trade data confirm that the Dangote Refinery has leaned heavily on U.S. crude in recent months. In July 2025, imports averaged 590,000 barrels per day (bpd), the highest so far.
According to Kpler analytics:
- 370,000 bpd (60%) came from the United States.
- 220,000 bpd (40%) came from Nigerian streams such as Bonny Light, Amenam, and Escravos.
This marked the first time U.S. volumes outweighed Nigerian supply in the refinery’s crude mix. Dangote is currently processing at 85% of its nameplate capacity (590 kbpd), with expansion to 700,000 bpd underway.
Outlook
Nigeria’s near-100% surge in U.S. crude imports underlines the refinery’s growing role in reshaping oil trade dynamics. However, the mismatch between rising national output and limited domestic supply allocation continues to push refiners toward foreign sources.
Industry watchers warn that unless allocation frameworks improve, Nigeria may remain reliant on imported crude to keep its refining hub running—despite producing millions of barrels daily.
