Fuel imports into West Africa spiked after Dangote Refinery reduced petrol output due to ongoing maintenance. The supply drop forced Nigeria and nearby countries to increase imports from Europe, according to S&P Global.
Petrol Imports Surge
S&P data shows petrol imports to Nigeria and Togo climbed from 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) in January to over 300,000 bpd in March. Imports in April stayed near 250,000 bpd, matching Nigeria’s national demand.
As Dangote cuts output prompted this import jump. Traders quickly turned to European sources to fill the supply gap.
Refinery Restarts Petrol Unit
A Dangote official told Platts, a division of S&P Global, that the refinery restarted its key petrol making unit the Residue Fluid Catalytic Cracker (RFCC), after a four-week shutdown. Engineers addressed design flaws and ramped up related units like alkylation and polypropylene.
The official confirmed the plant’s crude distillation unit ran at 550,000 bpd, around 85% of its full 650,000 bpd capacity. The RFCC reached 70% capacity before the shutdown. Dangote now plans to reach full capacity to meet domestic demand.
Outage Drives Market Impact
During the April outage, the refinery relied on its smaller 120,000 bpd reformer to meet demand. Limited access to petrol and LPG caused market strain. However, traders confirmed improved supply by 12 May.
Despite the disruption, Dangote maintained steady exports of diesel, jet fuel, and residual fuel. The Dangote output cut triggered a rally in European petrol prices, as the market lost roughly 100,000 bpd of supply.
Planned Maintenance Pre-empted
Before April, Dangote scheduled a full RFCC maintenance in June. However, the April shutdown may have replaced it. S&P forecasts a June shutdown could push global petrol prices up by $3 per barrel.
Lome Becomes Import Hub
Importers increasingly use the port of Lome in Togo to bring in fuel. They break bulk large shipments into smaller volumes for Nigeria. This tactic helps avoid local taxes and keeps payments in U.S. dollars, countering Nigeria’s push for naira-based transactions.
Soft freight costs supported the shift. Platts assessed freight to West Africa at $22.68 per metric tonne on 12 May, down from $28.25 a year earlier.
Outlook: Full Capacity in Sight
The Dangote cuts disrupted fuel flows temporarily but triggered fast import adjustments. As the refinery returns to full output, analysts expect stabilised supply and reduced pressure on European refiners.
