Despite years of climate pledges and unprecedented growth in renewable energy, the 2025 Statistical Review of World Energy delivers a clear message: fossil fuels remain central to the global energy system.
In 2024, global energy demand reached a record high. Rather than being displaced, fossil fuels grew alongside wind and solar. The newly adopted Total Energy Supply (TES) metric, introduced in this year’s review, offers a more accurate reflection of energy flow. It reveals that renewables are supplementing—not replacing—traditional energy sources. For oil-dependent economies like Nigeria, this presents both a challenge and a confirmation: while the future may be green, petroleum still powers the present.
Renewables Are Expanding, But Fossil Fuels Still Lead
The 2025 edition of the Statistical Review, now published by the UK-based Energy Institute, shows global energy demand rose by 2% in 2024—the highest on record. Despite a 16% surge in wind and solar output, primarily driven by China, fossil fuels—oil, gas, and coal—also hit new consumption highs.
The TES model, which measures actual usable energy rather than theoretical input, confirms fossil fuels continue to dominate. Fossil energy grew modestly but significantly, driven by increased demand from transport, industrial sectors, and power generation, especially in developing countries.
Carbon dioxide emissions climbed 1%, marking the fourth straight year of increase. This underscores that clean energy isn’t replacing fossil fuels at scale but is being layered atop surging demand.
Nigeria’s Energy Landscape: Petrol Still Reigns
Nigeria’s energy system is overwhelmingly reliant on fossil fuels. According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), over 93% of Nigeria’s energy consumption comes from oil and gas.
Petrol alone accounts for more than 50 million litres daily. In 2024, Nigeria consumed over 18.25 billion litres of petrol, making it sub-Saharan Africa’s largest PMS market. Despite improvements in grid supply and renewable policy efforts, more than 70% of Nigerians still rely on petrol or diesel for personal electricity generation.
Renewables contribute less than 10% to the national energy supply. As of Q1 2025, the Rural Electrification Agency (REA) reports that solar hybrid mini-grids serve fewer than 5% of rural households, with technical and maintenance issues hindering reliability.
Why Fossil Fuels Still Dominate
- Infrastructure Dependence: Nigeria’s economy and transport systems are built around fossil fuels. The country has over 12 million registered internal combustion engine vehicles and fewer than 20,000 electric vehicles (EVs). National rail, aviation, and freight systems run almost entirely on diesel and Jet A1.
- Cost and Accessibility: Petrol remains more accessible and cheaper than renewable alternatives. Dangote Refinery’s local supply and price competition with importers have pushed ex-depot prices as low as ₦825 to ₦880 per litre in recent months, undercutting capital-heavy renewables.
- Grid Instability: Though Nigeria’s grid has an installed capacity of 13,000 MW, actual delivery rarely exceeds 4,500 MW. Until reliability improves, industries and homes will continue relying on gas, diesel, or petrol backup systems.
- Energy Density and Storage: Fossil fuels deliver high energy density and stable storage, critical for transport, emergency power, and logistics applications where solar and wind remain costly or impractical.
Global Trends Reflect Local Realities
Worldwide, fossil fuels still power most economies. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in 2024, oil supplied 31% of total global energy, gas 23%, and coal 26%. Renewables accounted for just under 15%.
In Africa, fossil fuels supply over 70% of energy needs. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that while Africa added 15 GW of solar in 2024, fossil-based capacity additions surpassed 25 GW.
The Case for a Balanced Transition
Expecting renewables to rapidly replace fossil fuels is unrealistic—especially in developing nations like Nigeria. Instead, the energy transition must be gradual, layered, and pragmatic.
The rise of the Dangote Refinery and its ongoing price war with importers exemplifies the real shift in Nigeria’s energy economy. Even the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) is transitioning from import dependence to domestic refining.
To achieve sustainable progress, Nigeria should focus on:
- Hybrid energy models that combine renewables with fossil fuels.
- Cleaner fossil technologies, such as gas-to-power and efficient refining.
- Support for modular refineries to boost local supply.
- Expanded mini-grid renewables in off-grid and underserved areas.
- Massive investment in grid and infrastructure upgrades to support long-term electrification.
Fossil Fuels Aren’t Going Anywhere Soon
The data speaks clearly. Whether measured in barrels, megawatts, or tonnes of CO₂, fossil fuels remain the backbone of Nigeria’s and the world’s energy system.
Until renewables become scalable, dispatchable, and cost-competitive—and until infrastructure can support their full integration—the transition will be slow. Nigeria must embrace a balanced energy mix, where fossil fuels dominate for now, and renewables rise steadily alongside.
