When the Naira-for-Crude deal was announced in October 2024, it sounded like the breakthrough Nigerians had been waiting for. Finally, local refineries would get crude oil in naira instead of dollars, reducing pressure on our foreign exchange reserves, stabilising fuel prices, and strengthening the economy.
But months later, nothing has changed. Fuel prices remain high, refineries are struggling to get crude, and the naira continues to slide. Instead of relief, Nigerians are left wondering: Was this just another empty government promise?
A Policy Full of Promises, But No Action
The Federal Government had pledged to supply 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) to local refineries, with Dangote Refinery receiving 385,000 bpd. This was supposed to reduce fuel imports, cut petrol prices, and stabilise the naira.
But here’s the reality:
- In February 2025, Dangote Refinery received only 61,290 bpd, far below the promised 385,000 bpd.
- Dangote’s allocation had dropped further to 4.75 million barrels, and most of it still had to be bought in dollars instead of naira.
- The shortfall forced Dangote Refinery to import crude from the U.S., Brazil, Libya, and Angola just to keep running.
Eche Idoko, spokesperson for the Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria (CORAN), confirmed that refineries are not getting the crude they were promised.
“Many refineries are struggling to get crude. The government is not fully implementing the Naira-for-Crude deal, and this is affecting fuel supply and prices,” he said.
Fuel Prices Still High, Nigerians Still Suffering
With local crude supply unreliable, Dangote Refinery has resorted to importing crude just to sustain operations.
- In 2024, Nigeria imported 47,000 barrels per day of U.S. crude, with a large portion going to Dangote Refinery.
- In December 2024, Dangote Refinery imported 358,000 barrels per day of crude.
- In February 2025, another 12 million barrels are expected from the U.S.
Despite these efforts, fuel prices remain high, with petrol selling at ₦890–₦950 per litre across different states.
The Reality on the Streets
The Naira-for-Crude initiative was supposed to make life easier for Nigerians, but the opposite has happened.
- Transport fares remain high because fuel prices haven’t dropped significantly.
- Food and goods are still expensive due to high logistics costs.
- The naira keeps losing value as refineries still need dollars to import crude.
- Nigeria remains at the mercy of global oil prices, instead of having fuel security.
The frustration is clear:
- “They promised us cheap fuel, but things are even worse” – @ObinnaLagos
- “If crude is refined in Nigeria, why is petrol still expensive?” – @AishaSuleiman
- “Until we see fuel at ₦500 per litre or less, this is just political talk” – @SalihuBello23
NNPCL’s Claims vs. Reality
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) insists it can meet local and international crude demand. NNPCL’s Chief Corporate Communications Officer, Olufemi Soneye, stated that oil production has improved, reaching 1.8 million barrels per day.
But OPEC and NUPRC data say otherwise, Nigeria’s actual production in 2024 was below 1.5 million bpd. This raises serious doubts about NNPCL’s claims.
What Needs to Change?
Experts believe that the Federal Government must fully implement the Naira-for-Crude policy and ensure consistent crude supply to local refineries.
Dr. Bala Zakka, an oil and gas analyst, argues that Nigeria’s domestic crude should not be tied to international prices.
“The crude we refine for our own use should not be tied to international oil prices. The government should guarantee steady crude supply to local refineries at stable rates,” he said.
The Way Forward: Time for Real Action
Nigeria is gradually becoming a refining hub in West Africa, thanks to Dangote Refinery and other private refineries. But without a reliable crude supply, these refineries cannot function properly, and Nigerians will continue to suffer high fuel prices.
For now, the failure of the Naira-for-Crude policy is crippling the economy, and if urgent steps aren’t taken, the cost of living will only get worse.
The government must act, Nigerians cannot afford more broken promises.
