Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market closed the second full trading week of December on a bearish footing, as depot prices for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) declined across major coastal and inland hubs. Automotive Gas Oil (AGO), although still trading at elevated levels, decline in key corridors as replacement costs eased and supply conditions improved.
According to Petroleumprice.ng’s depot-level tracking, price movements between Monday, December 8, and Friday, December 12, 2025, show a market increasingly shaped by domestic supply dynamics, refinery-led repricing, and intensifying competition among depot operators.
Market Fundamentals: Why Prices Are Falling
Broadly, depot prices are declining due to local demand-and-supply imbalances rather than global oil market shocks. Supply continues to outpace demand nationwide, supported by volumes from the Dangote Refinery and sustained product importation.
Consistent price reviews by Dangote Refinery have reset market expectations, while depot operators across key hubs have responded by aggressively repricing inventories to defend market share. Competition, therefore, remains the primary force weakening wholesale pricing especially in high-volume trading centres.
Lagos Depots: Oversupply Triggers Sharp PMS Declines
PMS Movements (8 – 12 Dec)
| Depot | Opening (₦/L) | Closing (₦/L) | Change (₦) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Integrated | 825 | 800 | -25 | ↓ |
| Bovas | 825 | 798 | -27 | ↓ |
| Wosbab | 826 | 804 | -22 | ↓ |
| Menj | 825 | 805 | -20 | ↓ |
| Rainoil | 828 | 818 | -10 | ↓ |
| Pinnacle | 828 | 730 | -98 | ↓ |
Summary:
Lagos recorded the steepest PMS price declines nationwide as supply significantly exceeded demand. Large volumes from Dangote Refinery, combined with import arrivals, flooded the market and intensified competition.
Pinnacle led the decline with a sharp ₦98/litre drop, reflecting aggressive competitive repositioning following Dangote’s Refinery downward price review. Other depots followed suit, confirming broad-based PMS price softness across the Lagos corridor.
Lagos AGO: Mixed Signals, Mild Softening
AGO Movements (8 – 12 Dec)
| Depot | Opening (₦/L) | Closing (₦/L) | Change (₦) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ibachem | 937 | 934 | -3 | ↓ |
| Duport | 937 | 945 | +8 | ↑ |
| Nipco | 941 | 936 | -5 | ↓ |
| Ardova | 943 | 940 | -3 | ↓ |
Summary:
AGO prices in Lagos showed mixed but generally soft behaviour. While Duport posted a marginal gain due to location-specific demand, other depots recorded mild declines as trucking demand eased and import-parity economics improved.
Warri Depots: Broad PMS Decline, Stable Competition
PMS Movements (8 – 12 Dec)
| Depot | Opening (₦/L) | Closing (₦/L) | Change (₦) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zamson | 842 | 826 | -16 | ↓ |
| Optima | 840 | 828 | -12 | ↓ |
| Nepal | 838 | 826 | -12 | ↓ |
| Prudent | 842 | 826 | -16 | ↓ |
| Matrix | 838 | 827 | -11 | ↓ |
Summary:
Warri PMS prices declined across all tracked depots, confirming a uniform market. Supply remained adequate, supported by Dangote Refinery-linked volumes and import flows, but less intense competition than Lagos limited the scale of price declines.
Warri AGO: Consistent Bearish Momentum
AGO Movements (8 – 12 Dec)
| Depot | Opening (₦/L) | Closing (₦/L) | Change (₦) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nipco | 973 | 964 | -9 | ↓ |
| Rainoil | 972 | 964 | -8 | ↓ |
| Prudent | 972 | 964 | -8 | ↓ |
| AYM Shafa | 975 | 965 | -10 | ↓ |
| Matrix | 975 | 965 | -10 | ↓ |
Summary:
Diesel prices in Warri declined steadily as replacement costs eased and trucking demand weakened. The narrow closing range points to improving AGO price stability across the corridor.
Port Harcourt Depots: PMS Adjusts Lower on Better Supply
PMS Movements (8 – 12 Dec)
| Depot | Opening (₦/L) | Closing (₦/L) | Change (₦) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulk Strategic | 837 | 822 | -15 | ↓ |
| Sigmund | 837 | 822 | -15 | ↓ |
Summary:
Port Harcourt PMS prices moved lower as coastal inventories improved. Supply exceeded demand, but controlled competition kept price declines moderate and uniform.
Calabar Depots: Flat Pricing Reflects Thin Trading
PMS Movements (8 – 12 Dec)
| Depot | Opening (₦/L) | Closing (₦/L) | Change (₦) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matrix | 836 | 836 | → | → |
Summary:
Calabar PMS prices remained flat as limited supply depth and muted competition restricted price movement. Although falling crude prices added mild downside pressure, thin trading activity kept prices stable.
Weekly Market Summary
| Region | PMS Trend | AGO Trend | Market Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lagos | ↓ Moderate–Sharp | Mixed | PMS-led softening |
| Warri | ↓ Broad | ↓ Moderate | Bearish |
| Port Harcourt | ↓ Moderate | — | PMS correction |
| Calabar | → Flat | — | Stable |
Market Outlook
PMS prices are expected to remain weak to stable in the coming week as depot operators rebalance stocks ahead of festive demand. AGO may edge lower if crude benchmarks stay subdued and vessel discharge schedules remain smooth. However, logistics disruption and weather-related delays continue to pose upside risks.
