Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market closed the third trading week of December on a bearish footing, as depot prices for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) declined across most regions, while Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) softened in key supply corridors.
Data tracked by Petroleumprice.ng shows that price movements between Monday, December 15, and Friday, December 19, 2025, were driven largely by domestic supply-side pricing actions, changing availability conditions, and easing crude oil benchmarks rather than global market shocks.
Market Fundamentals: Why PMS and AGO Prices Declined
The primary trigger for the nationwide decline in PMS prices was a major gantry price slash by Dangote Refinery.
During the review period, Dangote Refinery reduced its PMS price by ₦129 per litre, cutting prices from ₦828 to ₦699. This aggressive adjustment reset wholesale market benchmarks and forced depot operators across coastal and inland regions to reprice inventories in order to remain competitive.
For AGO, price movements followed a different trajectory. Declining international crude oil prices, combined with improved diesel availability, particularly in the Warri and Port Harcourt corridors, eased replacement costs and weakened pricing across those regions.
Lagos Depots: PMS Prices Remain Relatively Stable
PMS Movements (15 – 19 December)
| Depot | Opening (₦/L) | Closing (₦/L) | Change (₦) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainoil | 803 | 785 | -18 | ↓ |
| Nipco | 780 | 725 | -55 | ↓ |
| Aiteo | 800 | 720 | -80 | ↓ |
| Integrated | 710 | 800 | +90 | ↑ |
Summary:
Despite the nationwide PMS decline triggered by Dangote Refinery’s ₦129 price slash, Lagos recorded relatively stable depot prices compared to other regions.
This stability was largely due to a temporary supply glitch caused by reduced PMS imports into the Lagos axis. The lack of sufficient import volumes slowed inventory replenishment, limiting the pace and depth of price adjustments even as competitive pressure intensified.
Lagos AGO: Thin Trading, Limited Movement
AGO Movements (15 – 19 December)
| Depot | Opening (₦/L) | Closing (₦/L) | Change (₦) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ibachem | 930 | 933 | +3 | ↑ |
Summary:
AGO activity in Lagos remained thin during the period. Ibachem recorded a marginal increase, supported by steady trucking demand and limited overlapping supply options.
Warri Depots: Broad PMS Decline and Weak AGO Pricing
PMS Movements (15 – 19 December)
| Depot | Opening (₦/L) | Closing (₦/L) | Change (₦) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matrix | 816 | 780 | -36 | ↓ |
| Zamson | 815 | 768 | -47 | ↓ |
| Optima | 815 | 767 | -48 | ↓ |
| Nepal | 814 | 768 | -46 | ↓ |
| Prudent | 815 | 769 | -46 | ↓ |
| Rainoil | 815 | 770 | -45 | ↓ |
| Darmarana | 815 | 768 | -47 | ↓ |
| Aym Shafa | 815 | 770 | -45 | ↓ |
AGO Movements (15 – 19 December)
| Depot | Opening (₦/L) | Closing (₦/L) | Change (₦) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matrix | 958 | 947 | -11 | ↓ |
| Optima | 955 | 940 | -15 | ↓ |
| Prudent | 960 | 944 | -16 | ↓ |
| Aym Shafa | 955 | 945 | -10 | ↓ |
| Edo Refinery | 965 | 950 | -15 | ↓ |
Summary:
Warri recorded one of the broadest and most uniform price declines across both PMS and AGO. PMS prices adjusted sharply to Dangote’s new pricing benchmark, while AGO prices weakened due to falling crude oil prices and improved diesel availability within the corridor.
Port Harcourt Depots: Supply Improvement Weighs on Prices
PMS Movements (15 – 19 December)
| Depot | Opening (₦/L) | Closing (₦/L) | Change (₦) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sigmund | 813 | 774 | -39 | ↓ |
AGO Movements (15 – 19 December)
| Depot | Opening (₦/L) | Closing (₦/L) | Change (₦) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulk Strategic | 982 | 977 | -5 | ↓ |
Summary:
Port Harcourt depot prices adjusted lower as regional supply conditions improved, particularly for AGO. Diesel prices softened on better availability and declining crude benchmarks, while PMS followed the broader Dangote-led repricing trend.
Calabar Depots: PMS Declines on Dangote Price Reset
PMS Movements (15 – 19 December)
| Depot | Opening (₦/L) | Closing (₦/L) | Change (₦) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soroman | 815 | 775 | -40 | ↓ |
Summary:
Calabar PMS prices declined in line with the national bearish trend. Limited market depth and thin trading volumes resulted in cautious repricing rather than aggressive undercutting.
Weekly Market Summary
| Region | PMS Trend | AGO Trend | Market Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lagos | Stable–Mixed | Mild | Supply-constrained |
| Warri | Broad Decline | Bearish | Weak |
| Port Harcourt | Moderate Decline | Mild | Soft |
| Calabar | Decline | — | Thin |
Market Outlook
PMS prices are expected to remain weak in the near term as depot operators continue to adjust to Dangote Refinery’s new pricing benchmark. AGO prices may soften further if crude oil prices remain subdued and regional supply conditions stay favourable. However, any import disruptions or logistics challenges could introduce short-term price volatility.
