Nigeria’s depot-level fuel prices may begin a downward correction in the coming days, following a sharp reversal in global crude prices after a fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel. The easing of geopolitical tensions is cooling the speculative surge that had gripped global oil markets and fueled aggressive domestic pricing.
From Strike to Spike: Oil Prices and Depot Reactions
The recent volatility began on June 13, when Israel launched the first airstrike on Iranian positions. On that day alone, Brent crude rose from $69.36 (June 12) to $74.23, while WTI jumped from $68.04 to $71.29. Prices climbed steadily thereafter, peaking on June 22—the day U.S. forces struck Iran’s nuclear sites—with Brent at $75.48 and WTI at $73.84.
In response, Nigerian depot marketers swiftly hiked fuel prices across major terminals:
- PMS (Petrol) climbed from ₦830–₦865 on June 12 to ₦920–₦940 by June 23.
- AGO (Diesel) surged even more sharply, moving from ₦960–₦1010 to ₦1060–₦1140 over the same period.
This represented an average 12–13% increase, significantly outpacing the 7–8% rise in international crude prices, signaling a speculative pricing trend locally.
Dangote Refinery and Bulk Marketers Under Scrutiny
By Monday, June 23, pressure intensified over unjustified markups. Bulk marketers lifting from Dangote Refinery were reportedly receiving PMS at an ex-depot price (PFI) of ₦880 per litre, but reselling at ₦905, exploiting the geopolitical uncertainty as justification. Industry watchers flagged the margin as excessive, especially given the softening of global prices.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump, responding to concerns over oil price spikes, publicly urged producers to ramp up supply. In a post on Truth Social, he wrote: “EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I’M WATCHING! DON’T PLAY INTO THE ENEMY’S HANDS. DRILL, BABY, DRILL!!!”
Despite the presidential directive, there has been no production shift from U.S. operators. “Shale firms don’t respond to tweets. They respond to prices and long-term strategy,” said an energy analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). U.S. producers remain cautious, prioritizing investor returns and capital discipline over short-term supply spikes.
Ceasefire Triggers Market Retreat—Will Depot Prices Follow?
As at Tuesday, June 24, Brent and WTI have both retreated dramatically:
- On June 23, Brent dropped to $70.52, and WTI to $68.51.
- As of today, Brent crude has fallen further to $69.21, down 3.18%, while WTI sits at $66.35, also down 3.15%, deepening the correction trend.
This marks an approximate 8% decline from the post-strike peak. The market pullback is already showing at Nigerian depots. NIPCO, for example, reduced its PMS price from ₦945 on June 23 to ₦910 on June 24, suggesting a broader correction may be underway.
Analysts say if global crude prices stabilize or continue to fall, Nigerian depot owners will be under pressure to reverse their recent hikes, especially given the disparity between crude price movement and local markups.
Speculation Eases, All Eyes on Marketers
As the Strait of Hormuz remains open and diplomatic efforts continue, the speculative rally that inflated Nigeria’s fuel prices may be losing steam. But with the memory of recent markups still fresh, consumers and regulators alike will be watching to see whether marketers pass on the relief or pocket the gains.
