Based on the recorded price movements from November 3-8, we can make an informed projection for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) prices in Nigeria for the week of November 11-17.
Here is a breakdown of the observed trends and expected pricing for PMS, factoring in both domestic and global influences, particularly potential shifts from the U.S. election.
PMS Price Trends (November 3-8):
Lowest Price: Coolspring consistently offered the lowest PMS prices, dipping to N1007 on Friday.
Highest Price: Sahara reached the highest PMS price, peaking at N1035 on Monday and Tuesday.
Overall Range: N1007 to N1035, with slight daily fluctuations mostly between N1010 and N1030.
Projection for PMS Prices (November 11-17):
Given the stability in pricing observed in the week of November 3-8 and the trend toward a gradual decrease, we can expect PMS prices for next week to continue fluctuating within the N1005 to N1035 range, with the average expected to stabilise around N1015 to N1025. Here’s how this range was inferred:
- Domestic Price Stability: The price variations over the week indicate steady demand and controlled supply, suggesting little fluctuation for the upcoming week. Any price drops observed by the end of the previous week indicate a slight ease in supply constraints.
- Global Impact and U.S. Election: The re-election of former U.S. President Donald Trump could influence global oil markets due to potential deregulation and an anticipated increase in U.S. oil output. This shift might increase global oil supply, potentially reducing crude prices. However, these effects will take time to impact Nigeria’s downstream PMS pricing.
- Domestic Supply and FX Constraints: Nigeria’s PMS pricing often reflects international crude prices, but factors like foreign exchange (FX) limitations and importation costs also play crucial roles. Given current FX constraints, any decline in international prices may not significantly lower PMS prices domestically in the near term.
Inference on AGO, ATK, and LPG Price Movements:
AGO (Diesel): With minimal price fluctuation in the observed period (ranging between N1045 to N1090), AGO prices are likely to remain stable, with an average around N1060 to N1075.
ATK (Aviation Fuel): Prices have maintained a high threshold, particularly due to sustained global demand and import costs. Prices may stay within N1140 to N1222.
LPG (Cooking Gas): LPG showed minor decreases in prices, possibly due to lower importation costs and availability of supply, projecting a range between N1080 to N1150 in the coming week.
For PMS prices between November 11-17, expect them to hover around N1015 to N1025, with similar stability in diesel and ATK, but a potential slight decrease for LPG. As global markets respond to U.S. policy shifts, Nigeria’s downstream sector may face gradual adjustments in the months ahead, though short-term FX limitations and importation costs will likely keep prices steady in the near future.
