The Dangote Petrochemical Refinery has significantly impacted Nigeria’s fuel market by supplying up to 60% of the country’s petrol, according to a new report by S&P Global. This milestone is helping to stabilise fuel supply and reduce Nigeria’s reliance on imported petrol.
Since commencing operations in January 2024, the refinery has steadily increased its output. In September, it began operating its Residue Fluid Catalytic Cracking (RFCC) unit, a crucial component for refining petrol. By January 2025, Dangote Group executives reported that the refinery was producing over 30 million litres of petrol daily, operating at more than 85% capacity. This output covers a substantial portion of Nigeria’s daily petrol consumption, estimated at 350,000 barrels.
The refinery’s success is evident in Nigeria’s declining petrol imports. In January 2025, imports dropped to just 62,000 barrels per day, compared to an average of 200,000 barrels per day in 2024. Analysts attribute this sharp decline to the growing production at the Dangote Refinery.
However, there have been mixed reports regarding local fuel supply. The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority recently stated that Nigeria’s three operational refineries contribute less than 50% of the country’s daily petrol needs. This contrasts with the higher figures reported by Dangote Refinery, raising questions about production transparency.
Despite these discrepancies, the refinery is on track to reach full operational capacity by mid-March. In addition to petrol, it has begun producing diesel and jet fuel, strengthening Nigeria’s overall energy security.
While consumers have yet to see major price reductions, experts believe that as production and distribution stabilise, fuel prices may become more competitive. The refinery’s continued expansion is expected to further reduce Nigeria’s dependence on fuel imports, ensuring a more self-reliant and stable energy future.
Dangote Refinery’s growth marks a turning point in Nigeria’s energy landscape, with long-term benefits for the economy and fuel supply.
