Dangote Petroleum Refinery has delivered a steep year-on-year reduction in petrol prices, cutting its ex-depot rate by ₦200.50 per litre, a 22.3 percent decline within 12 months, as intensified local supply reshapes Nigeria’s downstream market.
Data reviewed by Petroleumprice.ng show that on December 19, 2024, Dangote Refinery sold premium motor spirit (PMS) at an opening ex-depot price of ₦899.50 per litre, after an initial cut from ₦970 per litre. Exactly one year later, the refinery closed in 2025 with PMS priced at ₦699 per litre, following a fresh ₦129 per litre reduction that took effect on December 12, 2025.
The cumulative drop from ₦899.50 to ₦699 translates to a ₦200.50 per litre decline, underscoring the refinery’s aggressive pricing strategy since it began active market participation.
A Year of Sustained Price Compression
Unlike sporadic adjustments driven by global oil shocks, Dangote’s price cuts reflect a sustained effort to compress domestic fuel costs through local refining, logistics efficiencies, and scale. The latest price cut represents a 15.58 percent decline within one month, occurring between November and December 2025, while the full-year comparison highlights a broader structural shift.
Market watchers note that the refinery’s pricing has increasingly set the tone for depot and retail markets, particularly in Lagos and the South-West, where proximity to Dangote’s supply chain has intensified competition.
Pressure on Import-Dependent Marketers
The year-long slide in Dangote’s ex-depot price has squeezed margins for import-reliant marketers, many of whom have struggled to compete with locally refined volumes. Several private depots and retail outlets have responded with sharp price adjustments in recent weeks, while others continue to hold higher prices due to older stock and supply constraints.
Industry sources say the ₦699 benchmark now represents a psychological and commercial ceiling, forcing downstream players to realign pricing or risk losing volumes.
Redefining Nigeria’s Petrol Market
From an opening ex-depot price near ₦900 to a year-end close at ₦699, Dangote Refinery’s 22 percent price reduction signals more than a numerical decline. It reflects a growing shift away from import parity pricing toward domestic cost-driven pricing, with long-term implications for fuel affordability, competition, and supply stability in Nigeria.
As 2025 ends, the refinery’s pricing trajectory suggests that local refining is no longer just supplementing Nigeria’s petrol market—it is increasingly defining it.
