Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery, the country’s flagship energy project and Africa’s largest of its kind, is grappling with operational strains as crude oil inflows dip sharply in September. The refinery’s gasoline-producing unit, and residual fluid catalytic cracker (RFCC), is also down for maintenance, compounding supply tightness. At the same time, the failure to issue new pro forma invoices (PFIs) has sparked hoarding at the Refinery, pushing petrol prices higher and fuelling tension in the downstream market.
Crude Inflows Slide to One-Year Low
Crude intake into Dangote Refinery has slowed sharply this September. Market intelligence from Vortexa shows inflows have dropped to about 250,000 barrels per day (b/d). If this persists, it will mark the lowest crude supply since September 2024 when Fitch downgraded the company and banks tightened trade finance lines, restricting its ability to purchase crude.
This slump has immediate consequences. With less feedstock coming in, the Refinery cannot run at its designed efficiency. More importantly, it highlights Nigeria’s vulnerability: without reliable upstream supply and financial flexibility, even Africa’s largest Refinery struggles to maintain stable production.
Dangote RFCC Outage Fuels Export Shifts
While crude inflows have slowed, the Refinery’s residual fluid catalytic cracker (RFCC) a critical gasoline-producing unit has also gone offline for maintenance. Industry sources say the RFCC is unlikely to resume full operations until early October.
In the meantime, Dangote has redirected more low-sulphur straight-run (LSSR) fuel oil into export markets. Preliminary data indicate exports hit 320,000 b/d in September, the Refinery’s highest seaborne shipments on record. This shift may keep revenue flowing, but it starves the domestic market of badly needed petrol, further tightening local supply chains.
Regional Supply Pressures Deepen
The situation in West Africa makes matters worse. Product inflows from other regions into the subcontinent have slowed to less than one million tonnes of gasoline and blending components this month. This figure sits well below the year-to-date average and marks the weakest September arrival on record.
In effect, the region is receiving less imported petrol just as Dangote is struggling to balance its operations. This twin squeeze magnifies the Refinery’s importance: whenever Dangote stumbles, Nigeria and its neighbours feel the ripple effects almost instantly.
Dangote PFIs Delay Deepens Market Scarcity
The cracks in production have spilled directly into the downstream sector. Earlier this month, Dangote suspended gantry sales, promising to resume allocations by September 23. However, marketers confirmed that by September 25, no new PFIs had been issued.
The delay has created a frenzy. Marketers holding old tickets hoarded them, reselling at inflated prices. Consequently, depot prices surged far above Dangote’s official ex-depot rate of ₦820 per litre. At Sigmund Port Harcourt, petrol hit ₦870/L, while Wosbab Lagos recorded the steepest daily increase at nearly 3%.
By failing to issue PFIs on time, Dangote inadvertently handed middlemen control of pricing, undermining its own goal of stabilising retail pump costs.
Global Crude Oil Prices Add Pressure
As if local challenges weren’t enough, global oil prices are adding fuel to the fire. Brent crude remains near a seven-week high at $69.41 per barrel, while WTI trades at $65.05. Elevated global benchmarks mean Nigeria’s refiners face higher input costs, making any disruption at Dangote more expensive to absorb.
When crude is scarce and costly, and refining units are down, the knock-on effect is simple: scarcity at home, higher depot prices, and painful pump prices for ordinary Nigerians.
The Bigger Picture
What is unfolding at Dangote shows that size alone does not guarantee stability. The refinery’s struggles reveal the thin line Nigeria walks between energy security and exposure to global oil volatility. Each disruption whether from financing limits, crude shortages, or unit breakdowns quickly translates into inflationary pressures in the downstream market.
For Dangote, the immediate task is clear: restore RFCC operations and resume timely PFI issuance. For Nigeria, the lesson is sharper: without stronger upstream output and better policy coordination, the dream of cheap, reliable petrol may remain elusive despite hosting Africa’s largest Refinery.
