As competition heats up in Nigeria’s downstream sector, Dangote Refinery may be considering a fresh price cut on petrol as rival depots begin slashing their pump prices to gain market share. Recent price intelligence reports from April 24, 2025, show that several private depots are now retailing Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) at rates as low as ₦838 per litre, significantly below Dangote’s latest depot price of ₦837.50 per litre.
According to the Daily Oil and Gas Intelligence Report, prominent depots like AIPEC, AITEO, and Pinnacle have begun adjusting PMS prices to ₦839 and ₦838, respectively. This move marks a strategic undercutting of Dangote’s initial ₦870 pricing tier, which dominated the market when the refinery first began full operations.
A Market Shaped by Crude Supply and Strategy
Sources close to the matter suggest that Dangote’s pricing stability is supported by direct crude supply from NNPC Limited through the naira-for-crude initiative, a deal that allowed Dangote Refinery to access local crude using local currency, reducing exposure to foreign exchange volatility and enhancing operational efficiency.
However, with competing depots now narrowing the price gap or even undercutting the refinery, Dangote may be pressured to implement further price reductions in the coming days to retain its competitive edge.
Price Breakdown: Depots That Dropped Below ₦840
From the April 24 depot pricing data:
- AIPEC: ₦839/Litre
- AITEO: ₦839/Litre
- Pinnacle: ₦838/Litre
- WOSBAB: ₦838/Litre
Meanwhile, FYNEFIELD posted the highest PMS price at ₦867, indicating a wide margin between top and bottom pricing tiers in the market. Such variance has reignited a pricing war among depot operators, each vying for volume-driven dominance.
Coastal and Gantry Sales on Hold: Dangote Watches the Market
Notably, Dangote’s PMS prices, both gantry and coastal, remain officially “on hold” as of April 24, indicating a possible review in response to the shifting market terrain. Industry observers say this could be a strategic pause, allowing the refinery to recalibrate its pricing model in view of the fresh wave of undercutting by private marketers.
In the broader context, the Central Bank’s FX rate stands at ₦1,552.53 to the dollar, while the black market hovers at ₦1,560. This volatility continues to influence product landing costs, logistics margins, and ultimately, depot-level pricing.
Implications for the Retail Market
If Dangote lowers its depot price further in response to competitive pressure, a ripple effect could follow at the pump level, potentially bringing relief to Nigerian motorists, especially as retail outlets start to reflect new supply cost dynamics. With crude prices holding around $66.59 for Brent and $62.86 for WTI, international trends remain a key backdrop for local pricing.
For now, all eyes are on Dangote Refinery’s next move, as private depot owners fire the first shots in what may become a sustained price war for Nigeria’s petroleum supply chain.
