Crude oil prices dipped on Monday as Russia resumed exports from the Novorossiysk port, temporarily easing supply concerns that had fuelled last week’s rally. Despite ongoing geopolitical instability and sanctions risks, bearish fundamentals tilted market sentiment.
Brent and WTI Retreat on Supply Resumption
As at 9:30AM (WAT) Front-month Brent crude futures slid by 64 cents to trade at $63.75 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell by 1.10% to $59.43 per barrel in early Asian trading. The price decline marked a reversal from last week’s gains, which had seen both benchmarks rise more than 2% amid disruption at the major Black Sea oil terminal.
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) and Novorossiysk port key export conduits for Russian and Kazakh crude had halted loadings due to operational disruptions. The resumption of activity, confirmed by Reuters and supported by LSEG data, effectively softens the short-term supply squeeze.
Persistent Geopolitical Risks
The geopolitical backdrop remains tense. Ukraine ramped up its strikes on Russian energy infrastructure over the weekend, reportedly targeting Rosneft’s Ryazan refinery. These heightened hostilities, combined with tightening Western sanctions expected to intensify on 21 November continue to pose latent risks to Russian oil exports.
Meanwhile, the U.S. is weighing broader secondary sanctions, potentially penalising nations trading with Russia’s oil giants such as Lukoil and Rosneft. Analysts caution that these measures could complicate global oil flows, especially for Asian refiners.
Oversupply Fears Meet Upstream Activity
Oversupply concerns continue to shadow the market. OPEC+ members, chiefly Saudi Arabia and Russia, are maintaining elevated production quotas despite waning demand signals into 2026. This supply-side persistence has contributed to a perception of looming glut, especially as global inventories show signs of growth.
Adding to the oversupply narrative is a modest uptick in U.S. drilling. Baker Hughes reported an increase of three rigs last week, bringing the total to 417. Although minor, it underscores the steady resilience of U.S. shale activity despite price volatility.
Market Outlook: Fragile Balance
While Novorossiysk’s restart bOil Prices Slide Amid OPEC+ Output Pause and Shale Uncertainty brought temporary relief, volatility is likely to persist. Continued infrastructure attacks, escalating sanctions, and aggressive OPEC+ output strategies underscore the complexity of the crude market. With prices now in flux, traders will watch closely how supply dynamics interplay with geopolitical tensions in the weeks ahead.
