The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected that petrol pump prices will average about ₦950 per litre in 2026. This level remains above current market rates after recent price cuts by domestic refiners.
The forecast appears in the bank’s 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook, which outlines baseline assumptions for crude prices, exchange rates, and domestic output.
CBN based the projection on an average crude oil price of $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and $55 per barrel in 2026. It also assumed an average exchange rate of ₦1,451.63/$ in Q4 2025 and ₦1,400/$ in 2026, supported by improved FX market efficiency, stronger capital inflows, and a current account surplus.
The bank further assumed domestic crude production of about 1.5 million barrels per day throughout the forecast period. Under these conditions, CBN expects Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) prices to hover around ₦950 per litre in 2026.
Market Prices After Dangote Cuts
Before December, petrol sold at around ₦900 per litre or more in many locations. Prices fell after the Dangote Petroleum Refinery cut its ex-gantry rate from ₦828 to ₦699 per litre.
The refinery then enforced a ₦739 per litre pump price through its partner, MRS Oil. When MRS outlets adopted the new rate in mid-December, rival stations lowered their prices to retain customers.
CBN acknowledged the short-term relief from these cuts. However, the bank maintained that its medium-term outlook still points to higher average prices in 2026.
Import Risks and Domestic Refining
Dangote recently warned that petrol prices could rise to as high as ₦1,400 per litre if Nigeria returns to heavy reliance on imports. In a statement, the refinery said large-scale local production has helped stabilise the downstream market and reduce volatility.
CBN echoed this view. The bank said increased private-sector investment—especially in domestic refining—will support growth and help contain energy costs.
It added that rising crude production, stronger security around oil assets, and expanding refining capacity will improve supply conditions in 2026.
Inflation, Energy Prices, and the 2026 Outlook
CBN projected that headline inflation will slow to 12.94 per cent in 2026, down from an estimated 21.26 per cent in 2025. It linked the expected moderation to lower food prices and easing PMS costs driven by competition in the midstream sector.
The bank also forecast a 5.52 per cent drop in global commodity prices in 2026. It expects energy prices to fall by 6.99 per cent, with Brent crude averaging about $61 per barrel.
CBN said metal prices (excluding precious metals) may decline by 3.29 per cent, while agricultural commodities could fall by 3.18 per cent, reflecting weaker demand and easing supply pressures.
What It Means for Consumers
Recent refinery-led price cuts have pushed pump prices below previous highs. However, CBN’s baseline outlook suggests petrol could stabilise above current levels in 2026, depending on crude prices, FX performance, and Nigeria’s ability to sustain domestic refining and production.
