Brent crude oil surged past $70.13 per barrels as trading closed on Sunday with a 1.02% rise as of 10:00 p.m. Nigerian time. While the international oil market celebrated the rebound, Nigeria’s downstream sector braced for turbulence as the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) escalated its confrontation with Dangote Refinery.
The union has declared a nationwide strike, instructing members across the oil and gas industry to withdraw services beginning Monday, 29 September 2025 a move that could choke supply lines and put upward pressure on pump prices already strained by rising crude costs.
Global Market Tightness Meets Local Tension
The rise in Brent reflects bullish sentiment in global markets driven by OPEC+ supply discipline, increased Asian demand, and persistent geopolitical flashpoints. For Nigeria, however, higher crude prices are not unalloyed good news. They mean bigger dollar inflows but also higher import costs for refined products, translating into more expensive petrol at the depots.
The timing could not be more precarious. Just as Nigeria’s biggest Refinery is expected to ease import reliance, industrial unrest is threatening to paralyse operations.
PENGASSAN’s Directive and Strike Timeline
According to PENGASSAN’s National Executive Council resolution, members stationed in field locations were to stop work from Sunday, September 28, holding a 24-hour prayer vigil ahead of full withdrawal of services at 12:01 a.m. on Monday, September 29.
The union instructed members to suspend all control room activities, panel duties, and outfield operations. It stressed that interventions would occur only in life-or-asset-threatening scenarios, and only with clearance from its National Secretariat.
Crucially, the NEC directed an immediate halt to all crude oil and gas supply to the Dangote Refinery, while mandating international oil companies to reduce production and suspend deliveries to the $20 billion facility.
Dangote’s Denial, Labour’s Fury
PENGASSAN accuses Dangote of sacking more than 800 Nigerian workers and replacing them with expatriates. The refinery, however, insists it merely carried out internal restructuring and described the union’s actions as “lawless” and “economic sabotage.”
The standoff has drawn in the Trade Union Congress (TUC), which has also placed its affiliates on standby for industrial action. TUC is demanding reinstatement of all dismissed workers, a public apology from Dangote management, and an independent investigation into labour practices at the refinery.
“No corporation, regardless of size or wealth, will be allowed to trample on the dignity and rights of Nigerian workers,” TUC declared in solidarity.
Risks for Pump Prices and Supply
Analysts say the twin pressures of rising Brent crude and the PENGASSAN strike could lift pump prices in the coming weeks. The refinery’s curtailed output reduces domestic supply buffers, forcing marketers to rely more heavily on imports at higher landing costs.
Though the union insists existing inventories may cushion immediate shortages, prolonged strike action could quickly erode reserves, sparking fresh queues at filling stations and worsening inflation.
“This is a perfect storm,” a Marketer told Petroleumprice.ng “High global crude, disrupted local refining, and weak naira liquidity, the consumer is bound to feel the pinch.”
Government Scrambles to Intervene
The Federal Government has stepped in to mediate, urging both sides to seek dialogue. The Ministry of Labour has convened emergency meetings, aware that any prolonged disruption threatens not only fuel supply but also broader macroeconomic stability.
Yet the crisis has laid bare Nigeria’s refining dilemma: even with Africa’s largest refinery in its fold, the country remains exposed to the vagaries of both global oil dynamics and domestic labour disputes.
What Lies Ahead
As Brent crude sustains momentum above $70, the confrontation between PENGASSAN, TUC, and Dangote Refinery could prove decisive for Nigeria’s energy landscape in the weeks ahead. If resolved quickly, Nigeria could ride the wave of higher crude prices to strengthen its economy. If not, Nigerians may once again find themselves paying more at the pump or queueing for hours to secure fuel.
Ordinary citizens face the harsh reality as global oil prices clash with domestic labour tensions, pushing the fallout to filling stations nationwide.
