Global oil markets reacted swiftly on thursday night after Israel launched multiple airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. As at 5:20 AM 13th June, 2025, the tension sent Brent crude prices soaring to $76.13 per barrel, up by 9.76%, while WTI crude also jumped by 9.77%, trading at $74.69. Murban crude rose to $75.70, and natural gas climbed by 1.95%, signalling widespread market anxiety.
The sudden spike marks oil’s sharpest single-day rally since April 2nd, and it’s already sending ripples into Nigeria’s downstream sector, where fuel prices remain highly sensitive to global oil movements.
Israel-Iran Tension Rocks Global Crude Oil Supply Confidence
According to the Israeli military, the operation code-named “Rising Lion” involved dozens of fighter jets striking Iran’s nuclear enrichment site in Natanz, targeting both physical infrastructure and key scientists reportedly working on nuclear weapons and missile programmes.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the action as a “defining moment” and claimed the mission aimed to stop Iran’s nuclear ambitions before they became irreversible.
“We will not allow the world’s most dangerous regime to get the world’s most dangerous weapons,” Netanyahu declared.
Though no casualties have been confirmed yet, explosions were reported in Tehran and other cities. Iran has not officially responded, but fears of retaliation remain high. Meanwhile, the U.S. denied involvement, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio stating America’s focus remains on protecting its forces in the region.
What This Means for Nigeria’s Economy and Fuel Market
Nigeria, although an oil-producing nation, relies heavily on imported petroleum products due to its underperforming refineries. As a result, any rise in global oil prices directly affects local pump prices.
Petrol currently sells for between ₦870 and ₦1,100 per litre in major cities, with diesel prices also hovering around ₦970–₦1,100. With Brent crude now above $76, local marketers say petrol could cross ₦1,200/litre in the next few days if the trend holds.
“Every spike in Brent is a shock to our supply chain,” said an independent marketer in Lagos. “We’re already under pressure, and this will only worsen it.”
The surge in crude prices also raises concerns about Nigeria’s inflation, which already stood at 33.88% in April 2025, driven largely by fuel and transport costs. An increase in global oil prices means more expensive logistics, food prices, and power costs especially for households and businesses dependent on diesel-powered generators.
Nigeria’s Fragile Crude Refining System Under Scrutiny
The renewed crisis underscores Nigeria’s longstanding vulnerability in the energy supply chain. Despite being Africa’s largest oil producer, the country has yet to fully revive its state-owned refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna. The much-celebrated Dangote Refinery, though operational, still relies on imported U.S. WTI crude to meet its needs.
This dependency exposes Nigeria to external shocks like the current Middle East crisis. It also complicates the country’s ability to stabilise local fuel prices, despite having a refinery capable of processing 650,000 barrels per day.
“It’s a paradox,” noted energy analyst Dr. Chijioke Eke. “We produce oil, yet a war in the Middle East determines our petrol prices. That’s the cost of not fixing local refining.”
What Should Nigerians Expect?
With OPEC+ production limits still in place and traders pricing in potential disruptions to global oil flows, the market may remain volatile in the short term. If Iran retaliates or regional tensions escalate further, oil could cross $80 per barrel within days.
For Nigerian consumers, this likely means:
- Rising petrol and diesel prices
- Increased transport fares
- More expensive food and goods
- Strain on small businesses
Final Thoughts
While higher oil prices may increase Nigeria’s export earnings, the cost to ordinary Nigerians is immediate and painful. This moment once again highlights the urgent need for local refining, energy independence, and fuel price cushioning strategies that shield the public from global market shocks.
Until then, Nigerians remain at the mercy of world events and today, it’s a war between Israel and Iran that may determine the price of fuel at your nearest filling station.
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