The global oil market sent a fresh warning to Nigerians on Wednesday as Brent crude surged to $69.77 per barrel, the highest since April. The 4.34% spike, triggered by renewed tension in the Middle East, could translate into even higher fuel prices across Nigeria, where pump costs already hover between ₦870 and ₦1000 per litre.
For millions of Nigerians, this means one thing: more pressure on transport, food, and electricity bills.
Why Oil Prices Are Rising Again
Brent crude prices jumped after reports emerged that the United States was preparing to evacuate its embassy in Iraq OPEC’s second-largest oil producer. The fear of fresh conflict spooked the markets, especially as tensions involving Russia, Iran, and Ukraine remain unresolved.
At the same time, Canadian wildfires have disrupted about 344,000 barrels per day of oil production, further tightening global supply.
In response:
- Brent climbed to $69.77
- WTI Crude rose 4.88% to $68.15
Analysts say these price spikes reflect real supply risks from sanctions on Iran and Russia to weather-related disruptions in North America.
What It Means for Nigeria
For Nigeria, the story is bittersweet.
Higher crude prices mean more revenue for the government, but for the average citizen, it spells higher fuel prices. That’s because Nigeria still imports most of its refined petrol and diesel. So, when crude prices rise, local pump prices also jump.
“If Brent stays above $70, we’re likely to see petrol selling for ₦1,100 per litre in major cities,” said Abuja-based energy analyst, Dr. Chijioke Eke.
Already, inflation is biting hard. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria’s inflation rate stood at 33.88% in April, and any further rise in fuel prices will worsen the cost-of-living crisis.
The Local Irony: Rich in Oil, Short on Supply
Nigeria is still struggling to meet its OPEC quota of 1.8 million barrels per day, producing only about 1.4 million bpd in the first quarter of 2025. Why? The usual culprits: oil theft, vandalised pipelines, and years of underinvestment.
Meanwhile, the Dangote Refinery hailed as a game-changer is running, but ironically relies more on imported U.S. crude (WTI Midland) than Nigerian crude, due to poor local output. This makes it harder to keep fuel prices stable.
“It’s painful that Nigeria, an oil-rich country, still depends on foreign crude to run its only working refinery,” Dr. Eke added.
OPEC+, Saudi Arabia, and Global Risks
The OPEC+ alliance, which Nigeria is part of, plans to raise output by 411,000 barrels per day in July, after similar increases in May and June. This could eventually calm prices, but not immediately.
Saudi Arabia, the group’s biggest player, needs oil to sell at $96.20 per barrel to balance its 2025 budget. That’s why they’ve been adjusting prices and volumes carefully. But even their recent price cuts for Asian buyers haven’t stopped Brent from surging.
HSBC still predicts that crude may average $59 per barrel by the last quarter of 2025, but for now, Nigeria must brace for the short-term impact.
Nigerians Already Feeling the Heat
The ripple effect is already being felt. In Kano, trader Aisha Mohammed shared her worries:
“If petrol and diesel go up, my transport cost doubles. I’ll have to increase prices, and customers are already complaining.”
For rural Nigerians, who rely more on diesel and kerosene for daily survival, this is a big deal. Every increase hits hard from farmers moving goods, to families cooking dinner.
What’s the Government Doing?
So far, no official intervention has been announced. Subsidies were scrapped in 2023, leaving Nigerians fully exposed to global oil price swings. While the government talks about boosting domestic production and refining, progress is slow.
NNPCL has pushed for compressed natural gas (CNG) as an alternative, but infrastructure is lacking and adoption remains low.
Final Thoughts
If Brent crude stays above $70, Nigerians should expect fuel prices to keep rising, unless global prices retreat or local production improves.
“Until Nigeria fixes its refining and oil production challenges, we’ll remain at the mercy of global markets,” Dr. Eke said plainly.
For now, with fuel prices likely heading higher, the conversation at every filling station and market will be about how to cope once again.
