Brent crude falls to $65 today, down 2.4%, as oversupply fears and geopolitical instability continue to hammer the oil markets. In the absence of bullish drivers, global energy prices are slipping further into correction territory.
OPEC+ Output Fuels Global Surplus
To begin with, the persistent decision by OPEC+ producers to unwind more output into the summer months has unsettled traders. Instead of curbing production to stabilise the market, key players like Saudi Arabia have doubled down, igniting concerns of a deepening crude glut.
As a result, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 2.19% to $60.69, while Murban crude dipped 2.6% to $64.40. These declines reflect a broader selloff across global benchmarks.
Trump’s Trade Policies Add to Market Volatility
Furthermore, the second-term energy agenda of President Donald Trump is sending shockwaves through the commodity landscape. Over the past 100 days, Trump has enacted 142 executive orders, including a 145% import tariff on Chinese energy goods. Predictably, Beijing responded with a 125% tariff, deepening the supply-demand mismatch for LNG, LPG, and ethane.
At the same time, the US dollar has weakened significantly. The euro has gained 10% since January, with the EUR/USD rate climbing to 1.14. This currency shift, in turn, has pressured dollar-denominated commodities like oil even further.
Demand Remains Weak Amid Global Uncertainty
Meanwhile, demand indicators are showing little sign of strength. Although natural gas prices nudged up by 0.12% to $3.347, the overall market sentiment remains bearish. Without decisive progress in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks or a US-Iran breakthrough, upward momentum seems elusive.
Corporate Shake-ups and Outages Disrupt Supply Chains
Moreover, corporate instability is adding fuel to the fire. BP reported a 48% plunge in first-quarter profits, falling to $1.4 billion. Consequently, its strategy chief, Giulia Chierchia, will step down on 1 June under pressure from activist shareholders.
In Europe, a massive power outage crippled Spain’s infrastructure, shutting down refineries, halting traffic, and grounding flights. So far, the cause of the blackout remains undetermined, further complicating Europe’s energy outlook.
Geopolitical Risks Escalate in the Middle East
Additionally, the US has imposed new sanctions on three tankers supplying oil to Yemen’s Houthis. The Tulip, Maisan, and White Whale vessels were reportedly delivering refined products to Ras Isa. This action intensifies pressure in an already volatile region.
Meanwhile, Iraq is considering reopening the Kirkuk-Baniyas pipeline to Syria, an effort to bypass intermediaries and strengthen its regional export routes.
Supply Chain Realignments and Strategic Moves
Across the globe, strategic investments and realignments are reshaping supply chains. Notably, Kuwait’s KPC is in talks to acquire a stake in Woodside’s Louisiana LNG assets, just days after securing a $650 million deal in China. Similarly, Bill Gates-backed KoBold Metals is pursuing cobalt deals in the Democratic Republic of Congo after raising $537 million in January.
On the renewables front, however, Germany’s RWE has halted its US offshore wind projects, citing unfavourable political developments under Trump’s administration.
Outlook: Markets Wait for a Bullish Catalyst
Ultimately, oil traders are left waiting. Until a clear bullish catalyst emerges such as renewed demand from China, coordinated production cuts, or resolution of global conflicts, crude prices may continue to slide.
As tankers line up in Venezuelan waters and copper prices spike on pre-holiday Chinese demand, energy investors remain cautious. For now, Brent crude falls to $65 may be more than a headline it could be a sign of further downside to come.
