Nigeria’s fiscal plans for 2025 face growing strain as Bonny Light crude oil, the country’s premium grade, has traded below the government’s $75 per barrel benchmark for most of the year.
Data reviewed from market tracking shows that Bonny Light has underperformed in six out of eight months so far, raising concerns over the nation’s oil-dependent revenues.
Monthly Average Bonny Light Prices in 2025 (barrel/$)
- January: 80.76 ⬆
- February: 77.08 ⬆
- March: 74.44 ⬇
- April: 69.07 ⬇
- May: 65.90 ⬇
- June: 73.50 ⬇
- July: 73.18 ⬇
- August: 69.32 ⬇
Rising Fiscal Concerns
Except for January and February, Bonny Light has consistently fallen short of the budgeted benchmark. The sharpest drop came in May at $65.90, before a temporary rebound in June to $73.50. However, prices slid again in July and August, with the latter closing at $69.32.
Analysts warn that sustained weakness in crude prices could widen fiscal deficits, forcing the government to either increase borrowing or scale back spending. Oil exports remain Nigeria’s main source of foreign earnings, making budgetary assumptions highly vulnerable to global price swings.
Who Bears the Burden?
Observers note that the revenue shortfall ultimately filters down to citizens through reduced public services, delayed infrastructure spending, or higher inflation if the government resorts to borrowing.
With four months left in the year, policymakers face the challenge of stabilising revenues while balancing expenditure commitments in a period of volatile oil markets.
