Nigeria’s ambitions to expand its natural gas export capabilities are facing divergent paths, with two high-profile projects advancing at different speeds. The Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP), which would channel Nigerian gas through Niger to Algeria, faces renewed momentum from Algiers but is also grappling with security and financial challenges. Meanwhile, the Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline (NMGP) inches closer to a final investment decision, with Morocco’s government preparing to make a key budgetary announcement soon.
Algeria’s renewed push for the TSGP comes two years after the project’s formalisation via a memorandum of understanding between Nigeria, Niger, and Algeria. At a meeting in Algiers on 29 September, Algeria’s energy and mines minister, Mohamed Arkab, discussed plans for a forthcoming trilateral summit, which would assess progress on the 4,128km pipeline. While neither a specific date nor venue for the meeting was announced, Niger’s petroleum minister, Sahabi Oumarou, has reaffirmed his country’s commitment to advancing the project.
“The work has already begun with technical studies,” reported Algeria’s national press agency, quoting Oumarou. “It will continue with joint ministerial and technical committee meetings.”
The TSGP is designed to transport 30 billion cubic metres of natural gas annually from Nigeria through Niger and into Algeria’s gas network. From there, it could serve European markets, either through the existing Algerian pipeline system or via liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. However, financial, operational, and security concerns particularly due to militant activity in the Sahara continue to weigh heavily on the project. Energy geopolitics expert Jean-Pierre Favennec highlighted these challenges, remarking that the TSGP has long been viewed as a “sea serpent”a project that resurfaces but remains elusive.
Another challenge is the cost. Initially estimated at $10 billion when it was first proposed in 2009, the TSGP is now projected to require significantly more investment due to the surge in raw material prices. Some experts believe the final cost could be two to three times the original estimate.
While the TSGP seeks to overcome its hurdles, the competing Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline is on the verge of a critical investment decision. Valued at $25 billion, this pipeline would run through 11 West African nations before delivering Nigerian gas to Europe via Morocco. Rabat is expected to finalise the necessary agreements and make a budgetary decision by the end of 2024, setting the stage for construction.
Morocco’s Office National Marocain des Hydrocarbures et des Mines (ONHYM), led by Amina Benkhadra, has voiced confidence in the NMGP’s progress. “The involvement of all the countries through which the pipeline will pass demonstrates their firm commitment to the project,” a statement from ONHYM read in late August.
The NMGP has garnered widespread international interest, positioning itself as a key infrastructure project that could serve the European Union’s energy needs while also promoting regional economic integration in West Africa.
As Nigeria weighs its options, the country finds itself at a critical juncture in its energy strategy, with both pipelines promising lucrative export markets but posing distinct risks. With the TSGP facing security risks and rising costs, and the NMGP nearing a pivotal investment decision, Nigeria must navigate the complex geopolitical, financial, and operational challenges to realise its gas export ambitions.
