Nigeria leaned heavily on petrol imports in October after domestic production fell short of national demand, pushing daily consumption to 56.74 million litres, according to new data released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA). The regulator’s latest fact sheet shows that the country imported 828 million litres of PMS in one month to avert a nationwide fuel shortage.
Domestic Supply Lags as Imports Fill the Gap
Despite earlier assurances of rising output, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery delivered 512.4 million litres of petrol in October an average of 17.1 million litres per day. This figure is far below the estimated 50 million litres needed for stable daily supply, leaving a significant gap that marketers covered through imports.
The NMDPRA report confirms a broader trend: from October 2024 to October 2025, the refinery averaged 18.03 million litres/day, just 52 per cent of its projected 35 million litres/day target. Industry analysts say this performance highlights the slow ramp-up of Nigeria’s largest refinery and the continuing dominance of imported fuel in the domestic market.
Proposed Import Duty Sparks Concerns
The shortfall surfaced in the same month the Federal Government attempted to introduce a 15 per cent ad-valorem import duty on petrol and diesel an initiative aimed at protecting local refineries and improving market stability. President Bola Tinubu had ordered immediate implementation of the policy in late October.
However, concerns from operators and fears of a sudden pump-price hike pushed the government to suspend the tariff until Q1 2026. According to the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), the latest supply data validates warnings that the duty would have triggered a sharp increase in PMS prices.
PETROAN President, Billy Gillis-Harry, said Nigeria must continue supporting the Dangote facility while acknowledging that current domestic output cannot meet national demand. “The reality is that we still do not have enough in-country production. Imports remain necessary to stabilise supply,” he said.
Fuel Sufficiency Drops as Risks Mount
The NMDPRA report also shows a steep decline in fuel sufficiency levels. Nigeria maintained around 20 days of PMS sufficiency in late 2024, but this fell sharply to 9 days in October 2025 split into 7 days of inland stock and 2 days of marine stock.
Analysts warn that such low sufficiency leaves the country exposed to supply disruptions caused by port delays, forex volatility or shipping constraints. Diesel and aviation fuel, however, maintained healthier levels of 38 days and 35 days, respectively.
A month-by-month breakdown of Dangote’s output reveals wide fluctuations since it began supplying PMS in September 2024. Production peaked at 25 million litres/day in February 2025 but softened afterwards, stabilising at 17.1 million litres/day by September and October 2025 well beneath its planned output.
As Nigeria continues to push for fuel self-sufficiency, the latest figures underline one reality: imported petrol remains critical to meeting national energy needs, even with a mega refinery in operation.
