From 2015 to 2025, several major military strikes across the globe caused oil prices to rise or fall sharply. For Nigeria where oil exports are our lifeline these price swings had a direct impact on our economy. Below, we break down the 10 biggest strikes that moved oil prices, using Brent (global benchmark) and Bonny Light (Nigeria’s crude) to show the effect.
Saudi Arabia Bombs Yemen – 25 March 2015
Saudi jets launched airstrikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen. The world feared the Bab el-Mandeb Strait a key oil route might be blocked.
- Brent crude: $55.11 → $58.94
- Bonny Light: ~$56 → ~$60
- Nigeria: Brief boost to revenue in 2015, but local pipeline attacks cut into gains.
Russia Enters Syrian War – 30 September 2015
Russia began airstrikes in Syria, backing the Assad regime. The risk of wider conflict made traders nervous.
- Brent crude: $47.24 → $48.13
- Bonny Light: ~$48–$49
- Nigeria: Minimal price change, and vandalism in the Niger Delta kept us from benefiting fully.
Attack on Saudi Oil Fields – 14 September 2019
Drones hit Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities, knocking off half of its production about 5.7 million barrels daily.
- Brent crude: $60.15 → $69.02
- Bonny Light: ~$61 → ~$70
- Nigeria: Oil prices jumped, but local issues and OPEC restrictions capped our gains.
U.S. Kills Iran’s General Soleimani – 3 January 2020
A U.S. drone strike in Baghdad killed Iran’s military chief, Qasem Soleimani, raising fears of war.
- Brent crude: $66.25 → $68.91
- Bonny Light: ~$67 → ~$70
- Nigeria: Prices surged briefly, but the COVID-19 pandemic that followed crashed demand soon after.
Russia Invades Ukraine – 24 February 2022
Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, shaking global markets and energy supply chains.
- Brent crude: $96.84 → $97.93 (peaked at $127.98 by 8 March)
- Bonny Light: Crossed $100
- Nigeria: Prices were great, but our oil theft crisis meant we didn’t enjoy the full benefits.
Hamas Attacks Israel – 7 October 2023
Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel, raising fears of a wider war across the Middle East.
- Brent crude: $84.58 → $88.15
- Bonny Light: ~$89
- Nigeria: Small revenue increase, but production fell short of our OPEC quota.
U.S. and U.K. Strikes Yemen’s Houthis – 11 January 2024
After the Houthis attacked shipping vessels in the Red Sea, the U.S. and U.K. responded with coordinated airstrikes.
- Brent crude: $77.59 → $78.29
- Bonny Light: ~$79
- Nigeria: Price barely rose. Our 2024 budget target of $77.96/bbl was hard to meet.
Iran Fires 200 Missiles at Israel – 1 October 2024
In a major escalation, Iran fired missiles at Israel. Oil sites were untouched, but tensions soared.
- Brent crude: $71.77 → $73.90
- Bonny Light: ~$75
- Nigeria: Slight revenue boost, but low production continued to limit gains.
Israel Retaliates with Airstrikes in Iran – 25 October 2024
Israel launched airstrikes on Iran’s military targets, avoiding oil infrastructure.
- Brent crude: $74.38 → $71.42
- Bonny Light: ~$75 → ~$72
- Nigeria: Prices dropped below budget benchmarks, deepening our revenue shortfall.
U.S. Strikes Houthis Again – 15 March 2025
The U.S. hit Houthi rebel positions once more, following ongoing Red Sea disruptions.
- Brent crude: $70.58 → $71.58
- Bonny Light: $70.3 → ~$71.5
- Nigeria: Modest price gain, but production and forex woes persisted.
What These Price Shocks Mean for Nigeria
1. Price Rises Don’t Always Help
Even when oil prices go up globally, Nigeria can’t benefit much if we’re not producing enough or if we’re losing oil to theft.
2. Budget Gaps Keep Widening
Our federal budgets rely on oil price benchmarks $75–$78 per barrel in recent years but actual prices and output often fall short.
3. Global Events Still Drive Our Economy
Whether it’s war in Ukraine or bombs over Gaza, international crises directly affect Nigeria’s income, even if we’re not involved.
4. Fixing Local Problems Is Key
Without solving vandalism, oil theft, and poor output, global oil price hikes won’t translate into real money for Nigerians.
