In just six months, Dangote Petroleum Refinery adjusted petrol (PMS) prices ten times, asserting itself as Nigeria’s most powerful player in the downstream oil market. Its actions, ranging from strategic cuts to market-shaking hikes and rebate rollouts, reshaped fuel pricing, undercut importers, and exposed structural imbalances in the sector.
Here’s a data-driven breakdown monitored by petroleumprice.ng of all ten price movements, rebates, and strategic disruptions from January to June 2025.
1. January 19 — First Major Hike to ₦950/Litre
Dangote kicked off 2025 with a bold move, raising its ex-depot petrol price from ₦899.50 to ₦950/L. This ₦50 jump followed a Brent crude rally to $82 and rising logistics costs. Despite the increase, Dangote’s price remained slightly below competitors like AIPEC (₦970) and AITEO (₦972), signaling its cost-leadership ambitions.
2. February 1 — ₦950 to ₦890: ₦60 Price Slash
Just two weeks later, the refinery reversed course, cutting the rate to ₦890/L as crude benchmarks softened. This early 2025 volatility showcased Dangote’s responsive pricing model, adapting quickly to market signals.
3. February 26 — ₦890 to ₦825: Ramadan Discount
With Brent falling below $65 and Ramadan approaching, Dangote trimmed another ₦65 off the price, reducing it to ₦825/L. This gave Dangote a clear edge over import-dependent terminals, allowing marketers to retail fuel more competitively nationwide.
4. March 14 — ₦825 to ₦815: Marginal Relief
A ₦10 drop to ₦815/L reflected minimal cost easing and internal adjustments. Though small, the cut reinforced Dangote’s strategy of fine-tuning prices while remaining below the import parity threshold.
5. March 19 — Suspended Sales in Naira
Faced with exchange rate distortions, Dangote paused naira-based sales and withheld PFIs. This move spotlighted the pricing imbalance between dollar-based crude procurement and local currency-based sales. Marketers scrambled as Dangote exited the spot market temporarily.
6. April 10 — Resumes Sales at ₦865
Sales resumed after a federal nod to continue the naira-for-crude supply model. The price was set at ₦865/L, a re-entry point well below AIPEC (₦888.67) and Rainoil (₦900). The move restored confidence among marketers who had held off lifting.
7. April 16 — ₦865 to ₦835: Triggering a Price War
A further reduction to ₦835/L signaled a turning point. Dangote’s pricing forced rival depots like BOVAS and SAHARA to slash their prices by ₦15 within 24 hours. This began an intense, ongoing price war across Lagos depots.
8. May 12–20 — ₦10 Rebate Lowers Price to ₦825
Dangote offered a ₦10/L post-loading rebate, effectively reducing the price to ₦825/L for marketers who loaded before May 15. It was not publicly announced but confirmed through internal PFIs and field reporting. Private depots like Pinnacle and MRS Tincan slashed prices to remain competitive.
Less than a week after ending the rebate, Dangote reinstated it on May 20 without a deadline or announcement. Marketers again paid ₦835 upfront but received a ₦10 refund post-loading. This prolonged the retail advantage, pushing competitors like MAO, Sahara, and A.A. Rano to cut prices marginally.
9. June 20 Price Hike — ₦880
Dangote raised its price to ₦880/L, a surprising ₦55 hike attributed to tensions in the Middle East, rising U.S. crude imports, and foreign exchange pressure. This triggered price increases across many Lagos depots.
10. June 30 Slashes Petrol Price — ₦840
Just 10 days later, Dangote dropped the rate to ₦840/L, regaining price leadership as crude benchmarks eased and depot operators adjusted downward to ₦860–₦865.
Dangote Sets the Rules, Market Reacts
In H1 2025, Dangote not only reviewed prices ten times, but it also dictated the pace of downstream pricing in Nigeria. The refinery’s dominance—driven by low-cost refining, rebate strategies, and quick reactions to global oil dynamics—left importers and private depots scrambling.
While consumers briefly benefited from lower pump prices, marketers faced tighter margins, unsold stock, and operational stress. With Brent crude hovering near $60 and more reforms looming, H2 2025 promises continued volatility, with Dangote likely still at the center.
